High cattle values raise hopes but slow heifer retention delays herd rebuilding
Cattle prices are starting 2026 on a strong note, with auction values staying above last year’s levels across most cattle classes and weights. The year 2025 marked the fifth straight year of rising fed cattle prices, matching a rare growth period last seen between 2010 and 2014. These high prices are creating positive market signals, but herd expansion is not happening quickly.
Despite favorable returns, widespread heifer retention has remained limited. The upcoming USDA Cattle Inventory report will provide important data on whether more producers began keeping heifers in 2025. Early signs suggest that rebuilding the beef herd will be slower than it was a decade ago. The number of beef cows expected to calve in 2026 is likely to be close to 2025 levels, mainly due to lower cow culling rather than increased herd growth.
Heifers kept for beef cow replacement have declined each year since 2017. By the start of 2025, replacement heifer numbers were about 16 percent lower than in 2014. Even if more heifers were retained in 2025, it will still take several years to rebuild beef supplies to earlier levels.
Instead of expanding quickly, many producers used strong profits to invest in infrastructure. Improvements such as fencing, water systems, handling facilities, and feeding equipment help reduce labor needs and improve long-term efficiency. Some producers also focused on paying down debt to strengthen their financial position after years of tight margins.
Labor shortages continue to affect the cattle industry. With fewer reliable workers available, many producers are adjusting their operations to become more self-sufficient. These decisions reflect a focus on durability, efficiency, and long-term planning rather than rapid expansion.
Overall, cattle prices remain strong, but herd recovery is expected to be gradual. The USDA inventory report will serve as an important benchmark for tracking market trends and rebuilding progress throughout 2026.
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