Talk is cheap

Contrary to my expectations, the September Hogs and Pigs report was bearish, not bullish. I was expecting clear evidence of deep contraction in the industry. Instead, the kept for breeding number indicated only 1% fewer sows on Sept. 1 versus last year.

The large packers have been talking big and major contraction. All talk. It would appear they’re hoping the “other guy” does the contracting while they continue to enjoy the fruits of increased efficiency in farrowing pigs.

Indeed, the report showed a new record high pigs per litter, reaching 11.61, up 4% from last year. So, during the summer season 4% fewer sows were farrowed but they raised a June/August pig crop even with last year.