The Accuracy and Informativeness of Agricultural Baselines

May 04, 2021

By Siddhartha Bora

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), University of Missouri are two main sources of baseline projections for US agricultural sector. Published in the beginning of each year, the baselines provide insight about factors influencing the agricultural sector for the next decade. The projections present a conditional scenario based on certain assumptions about macro-economy, weather, and trade, and serve a basis for comparison of alternative policies. In a new study, we evaluate the accuracy and informativeness of USDA and FAPRI baselines since 1997. We find that the predictive content of most variables in the projections diminish after 4-5 years from the current year, and the USDA and FAPRI models do not outperform one another when entire projection path is considered.

The report is available at: https://aede.osu.edu/sites/aede/files/publication_files/AgBaselines2021.pdf

Source : osu.edu

Video: Genomic Technologies and Public Trust - Dr. Ellen Goddard

In this episode of The Swine it Podcast Show Canada, Dr. Ellen Goddard, Professor Emerita at the University of Alberta, discusses public acceptance of genomic technologies in pork production. She explains why disease resistance is viewed positively, how labeling affects trust, why farmers remain highly credible messengers, and how communication can shape consumer confidence around gene editing. Listen now on all major platforms!

"Not providing information is a choice that can affect long-term public trust."

Meet the guest: Dr. Ellen Goddard / ellen-goddard-11541138 is Professor Emerita at the University of Alberta and an agricultural economist. Her work focuses on consumer behavior, trust, livestock sectors, and public attitudes toward food technologies. She also specializes in economic modeling for pork, beef, and dairy systems. Learn more from Dr. Ellen Goddard on the Swine in Canada Podcast Show, available on all major platforms.