Trade is a hot topic for agriculture in Ontario

Jan 11, 2019

January seems a suitable time to recap on the events from the 2018 season.

I have been on the road and covered a lot of ground across the province over the last couple months, and it’s evident it’s been a challenging year.

A lot of work needs to be done in all sectors including, infrastructure, energy, risk management, sustainability, and climate change to keep Ontario competitive in agriculture.

Trade remains a hot topic and rightfully so, as it is vital for many sectors in our industry.

The USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) and the US/China tariff war has put tremendous pressure on all producers and commodity groups. Foreign investment, interest rates and inflation threaten the value of the land we live off. Furthermore, the public trust and knowledge in food and agriculture continues to be a challenge.

But it’s hard to be negative. We are in fact Canadian agriculture; we offer the best products in the world, we are safe, we are sustainable, we are agricultural now more than ever.

New trade agreements like the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) and USMCA offer a great trade diversity.

Click here to see more...

Video: Did Bears Win Thanksgiving, Will Bulls Get Christmas?

Did the bears win Thanksgiving (although this week had green on the screen), and will the bulls get Christmas? Bears won thanksgiving thanks to a USDA Nov crop report dud that stalled the bullish grain momentum for a brief period. But a bullish lower yield surprise in the Dec crop report could reignite the rally.
2026 U.S. winter wheat planting is nearly complete at 97% while crop conditions improved by 3 points to 48% good-to-excellent. US corn & soybean harvest is complete.
High corn demand, which is off the chart, and more Chinese soybean demand could support a Christmas rally.
Nasdaq had it’s worst November since 2011.
A U.S. Fed rate cut in December will help fund flow and sentiment.
Bitcoin held a long-term support at 80,000 and that's positive for fund flow and sentiment. It should help stock prices and Ag as we go into December.
Fertilizer prices continue to climb as we look ahead to 2026. Farmers may rely more on the nutrients that they already have in their soils.
South American Weather remains critical as the soybean reproductive stage starts from late Nov to late Feb depending on planting date.
Will a Russia-Ukraine peace deal happen by year-end?
CFTC data as of showed more managed money fund sell-off as of October 14th.