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U.S. Dairy Exports Reach $8.2 Billion, Marking Second-Highest Level Ever—Industry Poised for a “Golden Age” of Trade

The U.S. dairy industry is poised to establish a new “golden age” of U.S. dairy trade, with exports reaching $8.2 billion in 2024 the second-highest total export value ever and a $223 million year-over-year increase, according to new data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Mexico and Canada U.S. dairy’s top two global trading partners representing more than 40% of U.S. dairy exports each imported record values of dairy at $2.47 billion and $1.14 billion respectively. Central American markets also surged, with Costa Rica, Guatemala and El Salvador all importing record values of U.S. dairy. U.S. dairy exports to China declined in 2024, marking the lowest year since 2020.

“The U.S. dairy industry is ready to capitalize on a renewed trade agenda in 2025,” said Michael Dykes, president and CEO, International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA). “Consumers in the United States and around the world continue to demand more U.S. dairy because we provide an assortment of delicious, nutritious and affordable dairy products. From award-winning cheeses, to high-value whey ingredients and milk powders used to make life-saving products for children and adults to safe and nutritious ESL milk, U.S. dairy is known throughout the world for quality and reliability.

“Our industry is poised to become the world’s leading supplier of dairy products thanks to the resilience and innovation of the American dairy industry. To do that, we need a trade agenda that prioritizes market access and ensures a level playing field. For too long, our exports to Canada have yet to fulfill the promises of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) because Canadian policies continue to prevent American exporters from filling their tariff-rate quotas. Demand remains soft in key markets such as China and Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia, illustrating the need for a strategic approach to trade with markets in the Asia Pacific region. Overall, U.S. dairy exports are performing well, but we can do more. With new trade agreements that remove obstacles and increase market access, we wouldn’t just break records—we would redefine the global dairy landscape for decades to come.”

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Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.