U.S. Heading to Record Ag Trade Deficit

By Faith Parum

The U.S. agricultural trade deficit is widening in 2025, driven by shifting global trade dynamics and rising import demand. USDA’s Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade: May 2025 report provides projections for exports and imports, offering insight into current trade trends. From January through April, the United States imported $78.2 billion in agricultural products while exporting just $58.5 billion. This $19.7 billion deficit is the largest ever recorded for the first four months of a year and signals that the 2025 deficit could surpass previous records.

After decades of consistent trade surpluses, U.S. agriculture has been in an agricultural trade deficit since 2022. In fiscal year (FY) 2023, the trade gap reached $16.7 billion and nearly doubles in FY 2024 to $31.8 billion. USDA now forecasts the FY 2025 deficit will rise to approximately $49.5 billion, which would mark the largest agricultural trade imbalance on record.