The 2024 US farm income picture has improved slightly from September but is still forecasted to be lower year-over-year.
Updated estimates released by the USDA on Tuesday projected national net farm income for this year at $140.7 billion, down $6 billion or 4.1% from 2023. That compares to the government’s September forecast, which put net farm income at $140 billion, a marginally steeper drop of 4.4% from last year.
As currently forecasted, 2024 net farm income would be down 22.6% from the all-time high of $181.9 billion achieved in 2022, although still above the 20-year average.
When adjusted for inflation, the drop in net farm income for this year becomes more pronounced, with a projected decline of $9.5 billion or 6.3% from 2023.
Crop producers will continue to bear the brunt of the economic downturn. Total crop receipts for 2024 are now projected to decline by $25 billion or 9.2% from 2023 to $246.2 billion, a slight improvement from September’s forecasted $27.7 billion drop.
Corn receipts are expected to fall almost 21% or $16.6 billion, while soybean returns are forecast to fall $6.9 billion or 12.3%. Compared to September, the expected drop in receipts has worsened slightly for corn but improved for soybeans.
Livestock producers are faring comparatively better, with total receipts for animal and animal products expected to grow by $21 billion (8.4%) to $270.6 billion in 2024. Cattle and calf receipts, bolstered by higher prices, are projected to rise by $7.3 billion or 7.2%, exceeding earlier predictions. Pork producers are projected to see receipts increase modestly by $1.5 billion or 5.7%.
Direct government payments are forecast to decline by $1.7 billion (13.6%) in 2024 to $10.6 billion.
On the other side of the ledger, US farmers are expected to spend slightly less on production in 2024, with total production expenses forecast to decline by $8 billion or 1.7% to $453.9 billion, an improvement over September’s forecasted $4.4 billion decline.
Despite declining net farm income, USDA projects farm sector equity — the difference between assets and debt — to rise by 5.2% to $3.68 trillion in 2024, reflecting growth in real estate values.
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