US soybean exports could fall 20% without China deal

May 19, 2025

US soybean exports may drop 20% and the prices paid to farmers will plunge if the United States and China fail to reach a deal in their trade dispute limiting US soybeans from its largest market, Reuters reported, citing agribusiness consultants AgResource on Wednesday.

US soybeans exports could slump to 1.5 billion bushels from an initial estimate of 1.865 billion without a deal, AgResource President Dan Basse told Reuters on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva.

At the same time, US soybeans farm gate prices - the average price paid to farmers - may collapse to $9.10 bushel in 2025/26, compared to $10.25 a bushel forecast by the US Department of Agriculture, Basse said.

"It’s important that any US/China trade deal happen by late summer or the export forecast will become reality pressuring US farm income. The clock is ticking," he said.

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