USDA Projects Ag Trade Deficit Will Fall to $41.5 Billion in 2026

Sep 02, 2025

By Ryan Hanrahan

Agri-Pulse’s Philip Brasher reported that “USDA’s quarterly trade outlook lowered the projected trade deficit for fiscal 2025 to $47 billion from the $49.5 billion estimated in June. The deficit is projected to drop to $41.5 billion for fiscal 2026, which starts Oct. 1, because U.S. ag imports are expected to fall even more than exports. The estimated deficit for FY26 would still be higher than FY24’s $32 billion.”

“USDA raised its estimate for FY25 exports from $170.5 billion to $173 billion, but projected them to decline to $169 billion for FY26. Imports are projected to drop from $220 billion this year to $210.5 billion in FY26,” Brasher reported. “Soybean exports are expected to drop from $21.5 billion in FY25 to $18.3 billion for FY26, down from $24.2 billion in FY24.”

“Soybean growers are being especially hard hit by Trump’s simmering trade war with China; the Chinese have yet to put in an order for this fall’s soybean crop,” Brasher reported. “ERS projects U.S. ag exports to China will drop from $17 billion in FY25 to $9 billion in FY26. As recently as FY24, China imported $25.7 billion worth of U.S. ag commodities.”

Source : illinois.edu

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