Farmers face variable yields across provinces in 2025
Canadian crop production in 2025 is expected to show both gains and declines, with farmers projected to harvest more canola, corn for grain, oats, and lentils.
At the same time, spring wheat, durum wheat, soybeans, and barley are anticipated to see reduced production compared with 2024, according to model estimates based on satellite imagery and agroclimatic data.
Across the Prairie provinces, crop conditions have been highly variable. Lower precipitation and extended heat in some regions led to below-average crop conditions by late July. Other areas that benefited from timely rainfall recorded stronger growth. In Alberta, nearly two-thirds of major crops were rated good to excellent at the end of July, above the five-year average. Still, moisture shortages in parts of the province may limit yield potential.
In Saskatchewan, rainfall supported normal crop development in some areas, while dry conditions forced earlier-than-normal maturation elsewhere.
Manitoba faced greater challenges, with many regions receiving less than half of normal rainfall, combined with high early-season heat that may reduce crop performance.
Eastern Canada also experienced diverse conditions. Ontario and Atlantic Canada saw below-average rainfall, while Quebec received more than normal. Overall, higher-than-usual temperatures affected most of the eastern provinces throughout the growing season.
Satellite measures of plant health, using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), confirmed this variability. Prairie crop health ranged from much lower than normal to much higher than normal, aligning closely with rainfall patterns.
Statistics Canada has applied these satellite-based models since 2016 to estimate yields. Final harvested area figures will be confirmed in December 2025 through the Field Crop Survey.
You may also be interested in reading some of the articles below to learn more details for each crop forecast.