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Warmer Temperatures Help Advance Manitoba Crop Growth

Manitoba Agriculture reports the past week saw warmer temperatures which helped advance crop growth along with variable amounts of rainfall and hail in some regions.Manitoba Agriculture released its weekly crop report Tuesday.

Anne Kirk, a cereal crop specialist with Manitoba Agriculture, says we did have much warmer temperatures over this past week, which advanced crop growth especially in those warmer season crops like corn and soybeans, but scattered storms and thunderstorms brought variable amounts of rain and in some areas, hail.

Quote-Anne Kirk-Manitoba Agriculture:

Crop quality is fairly variable as well.For spring wheat for example, most of the crop would be rated as good.A small percent in each region would be rated as poor and then a small percent is rated as excellent in each region.In most areas for most crops, we are seeing some drowned out areas in fields so areas that did have precipitation sitting for quite some time do have drowned out areas or areas with yellow or delayed crop growth.

For spring cereals in particular, because we did see some of these heavy storms over the past week and on the weekend, we did have some lodging in cereal fields in particular.For field peas in some regions, it's a bit tricky because they don't really like being wet so more concerns with root rot and poor field conditions just in those very wet regions.Iron deficiencies, sclerosis in soybeans is showing up in fields also as a result of those moisture conditions.

I'm thinking general crop condition look good.It really depends on how wet areas certain areas have been because crops obviously don't like to be under water for extended periods of time so in areas were crops have been under water for extended periods, fields can be fairly patchy or have larger drowned out areas.

Kirk says warmer temperatures forecast over the weekend and into next week are expected advance crop growth, but because so much can change between now and harvest it's still too early to estimate yield potential.
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Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

Video: Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

A new peer reviewed study looks at the generally unrecognized risk of heat waves surpassing the threshold for enzyme damage in wheat.

Most studies that look at crop failure in the main food growing regions (breadbaskets of the planet) look at temperatures and droughts in the historical records to assess present day risk. Since the climate system has changed, these historical based risk analysis studies underestimate the present-day risks.

What this new research study does is generate an ensemble of plausible scenarios for the present climate in terms of temperatures and precipitation, and looks at how many of these plausible scenarios exceed the enzyme-breaking temperature of 32.8 C for wheat, and exceed the high stress yield reducing temperature of 27.8 C for wheat. Also, the study considers the possibility of a compounded failure with heat waves in both regions simultaneously, this greatly reducing global wheat supply and causing severe shortages.

Results show that the likelihood (risk) of wheat crop failure with a one-in-hundred likelihood in 1981 has in today’s climate become increased by 16x in the USA winter wheat crop (to one-in-six) and by 6x in northeast China (to one-in-sixteen).

The risks determined in this new paper are much greater than that obtained in previous work that determines risk by analyzing historical climate patterns.

Clearly, since the climate system is rapidly changing, we cannot assume stationarity and calculate risk probabilities like we did traditionally before.

We are essentially on a new planet, with a new climate regime, and have to understand that everything is different now.