Home   News

WASDE: Forecast for 2018 Total Red Meat & Poultry Production Lowered From Last Month

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2018 total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month. Beef production is reduced from the previous month largely due to lower expected fourth-quarter fed cattle slaughter. Carcass weights are forecast lower on a higher expected proportion of cows in the slaughter mix. The pork production forecast is lowered on smaller second-half commercial hog slaughter and lighter carcass weights. The broiler and turkey production forecasts are reduced on expectations of slightly lower slaughter for the remainder of the year. The 2018 egg production forecast is raised from last month. 
For 2019, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is raised from the previous month as higher expected beef production more than offsets lowered forecasts for pork and broiler production. Beef production is raised from last month as larger placements in late 2018 and early 2019 are marketed during 2019. However, carcass weights are lowered for the early part of the year. Pork production is forecast slightly lower from last month. Both hog slaughter and carcass weight forecasts are reduced. The 2019 broiler production forecast is reduced from last month while the turkey production forecast is unchanged.
Beef import forecasts are lowered for 2018 and 2019 while beef export forecasts remain unchanged. Pork import forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are reduced from last month. No change is made to the 2018 pork export forecast, but the 2019 export forecast is raised on strong global demand for competitively priced U.S. pork products. The 2018 and 2019 turkey export forecasts are reduced from last month on recent trade data and slower expected demand into next year. Annual broiler and egg export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are unchanged from last month.
The 2018 cattle price for the fourth quarter is raised from last month, but no change is made to the 2019 price forecast. The hog price forecast is raised for the last quarter of 2018 and into 2019 on expected demand strength. Broiler and turkey price forecasts are unchanged at the midpoint for 2018 and 2019. The egg price forecast for fourth-quarter 2018 is raised on near-term demand strength, but no change is made to the 2019 price forecasts.
The milk production forecasts for 2018 and 2019 are raised from the previous month on a more rapid pace of growth in milk per cow. Cow numbers are raised for 2019. Fat basis imports for 2018 and 2019 are raised on continued strength in butterfat imports and slightly higher cheese imports. The 2018 and 2019 skim-solids basis import forecasts are lowered from the previous month. Exports on a fat basis are raised for 2018 on stronger cheese exports, but no change is made to the 2019 export forecast. Skim-solids basis exports for 2018 are raised, primarily on stronger nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey product shipments.
For 2018 and 2019, butter and whey price forecasts are raised from the previous month on expected demand strength, but the cheese price forecasts are lowered on continued large supplies. The NDM price forecast is unchanged. The Class III price is lowered for 2018; but for 2019, higher whey prices are expected to more than offset the declines in cheese prices, and the Class III price forecast is raised. The Class IV price is raised for both years due to higher forecast butter prices. The 2018 all milk price forecast is unchanged at the midpoint at $16.35 to $16.45 per cwt, and the 2019 price is raised to $16.85 to $17.75 per cwt.