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WASDE: Total Sugar Supply for Current Year Is Decreased

SUGAR: Total sugar supply for 2017/18 is decreased by 57,469 short tons, raw value (STRV). Cane sugar production for 2017/18 is reduced 44,356 STRV to 4.011 million.
Based on industry reporting, processing in Louisiana continued later than usual into late January, and production for the crop year totaled 1.859 million STRV, up 38,644 from last month. This gain is more than offset by a processor-forecast reduction in Florida cane sugar production of 83,000 STRV. Beet sugar production is reduced by 37,800 STRV to 5.219 million. Although the sucrose recovery from sliced sugarbeets in December, as reported in Sweetener Market Data (SMD), is down significantly from the previous month, most of the reduction is expected to be made up based on processor-sourced information. Increased beginning stocks of 24,687 STRV offset some of the reduced production, as 2016/17 imported sugar originally recorded as a direct consumption import was revised in SMD as raw sugar imported by a refiner. Deliveries for human consumption for 2017/18 are reduced by 75,000 STRV to 12.325 million, based on a slower than expected pace in the fourth quarter of 2017. The residually determined change in projected ending stocks for 2017/18 is 1.842 million STRV, up 17,531. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is 14.6 percent, up from 14.4 percent last month.
 
In Mexico, deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 86,626 metric tons (MT) to offset an increase in high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) consumption, as per capita
sweetener consumption in Mexico remains equal to the level of last year. The HFCS increase is based on a higher pace-to-date in the fourth quarter of 2017 and expected to continue for the rest of the marketing year, albeit at a slower pace. Stocks are projected at 22.0 percent of consumption to meet needs before the start of production in 2018/19, implying a reduction of 19,058 MT. Exports to non-U.S. destinations are residually projected at 276,981 MT, an increase of 105,683 over last month.