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WASDE: World Wheat Stocks are Now Expected to Increase During 2013/14

Projected U.S. wheat supplies for 2013/14 are raised 10 million bushels with higher expected imports from a larger wheat crop in Canada. U.S. trade and food use changes by class largely reflect higher projected exports by Canada. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat imports are raised 10 million bushels and Durum imports are raised 5 million bushels. Partly offsetting is a 5- million-bushel reduction in projected Soft Red Winter wheat imports. Food use is raised 10 million bushels for HRS wheat and lowered 10 million bushels for Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat. HRS wheat exports are lowered 10 million bushels reflecting increased competition from Canadian spring wheat. HRW wheat exports are raised an offsetting 10 million bushels on the strong pace of sales and shipments in recent weeks. Projected all wheat ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels. The projected range for the 2013/14 season-average farm price is narrowed 10 cents on each end of the range to $6.50 to $7.50 per bushel, well below the 2012/13 record of $7.77 per bushel.

Global 2013/14 wheat supplies are raised 3.0 million tons with increased production more than offsetting lower beginning stocks. World wheat production is projected at a record 708.9 milliontons, up 3.5 million this month. Higher production in Canada, the European Union (EU), and the FSU-12 more than offsets reductions for Iran and Paraguay. Production is raised 2.0 million tons for Canada as cool July weather supported flowering and reproduction, and abundant soil moisture and favorably warm, dry weather in August aided grain fill and maturity across the Prairie Provinces. EU production is raised 1.5 million tons as harvest results confirm increases from the United Kingdom and Germany in the west to Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria in the east. Small increases are also made this month for Poland and the Czech Republic, both in the EU, and for
non-member Serbia. FSU-12 production is raised 1.0 million tons as harvest results boost production 0.5 million tons for Ukraine and smaller increases are reported for Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. Production is lowered 1.0 million tons for Iran and 0.4 million tons for Paraguay.

Global wheat consumption for 2013/14 is lowered slightly as reduced wheat feed use for Australia, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia is partly offset by higher feeding in Canada and Brazil and higher food use in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Indonesia. Global wheat trade is raised with higher imports expected for Egypt, Iran, and Brazil. Import reduc
tions for South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Vietnam limit the global import increase. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons for the EU and 0.5 million tons for Canada, both with larger crops. Partly offsetting these increases are export reductions of 0.4 million tons for the UAE and 0.3 million tons each for Paraguay and Uzbekistan.With global consumption down slightly, higher production boosts projected global ending stocks 3.3 million tons. World wheat stocks are now expected to increase during 2013/14.

Source: USDA

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