Weather extremes are hamper early spring crop prospects in the US – with too little rain taking a toll on crops in much of the Plains, while too much moisture hampers early corn sowings further east.
The proportion of winter wheat in Kansas, the top US wheat-producing state, in "good" or "excellent" condition fell by 5 points to 41% in the week to Sunday, the US Department of Agriculture said.
In Oklahoma, another major wheat growing state, the proportion of winter crop rated as good or excellent dropped by 2 points to 40%.
The reductions came amid the spread of drought conditions in the states, with 44.5% of Kansas rated in drought last week, up 2.8 points week on week, and 70.5% of Oklahoma, up 4.9 points week on week.
Spring officially begins in the US on March 20.
'Dry conditions persist'
USDA scouts said that in the week to Sunday, "central Kansas received some trace precipitation, but no significant amounts were reported state-wide".
Topsoil moisture was rated "short" or "very short" in 47% of the state, and subsoil moisture in 55%.
In Oklahoma, scouts said that "dry conditions persist across the state", adding that "drought conditions continued to be rated extreme to exceptional across the western half of the state, with conditions most severe in the Southwest district".
The lack of moisture took a toll on some other crops too, with just 17% of oats rated good or excellent, down 1 point week on week.
'Crops will be stressed'
The dry weather has continued to concern investors, who nudged May futures in hard red winter wheat - as grown in the central and southern Plains and traded in Kansas City - up 0.3% to $5.56 ¾ a bushel in early deals on Tuesday.
That took nearly to 8% the price recovery from a contract low reached on March 5.
High temperatures are bringing US hard red winter wheat crops out of dormancy. Large regions, though, have little soil moisture.
And weather forecasters foresee "only modest rainfall over the next week or so.
"Consequently these crops will be stressed."
'Planting was delayed'
In the US, supply-side weather issues both here in the US and in South America have once again been able to support grains as we started the week, for wheat especially".
However, for corn and soybean growers too, he flagged some weather setbacks, in terms of excessive rains hampering the very early stages of US spring plantings.
In Texas, rainfall meant wheat "progressed well throughout the state" last week, with the proportion rated good or excellent rising by 1 point to 51%, the USDA said.
However, "corn and sorghum planting was delayed due to wet conditions in many parts of the state", with corn sowings 11% completed, well behind the average of 25% typically finished by now.
'Prices could rise'
Further east in Louisiana, plantings were behind too - with the USDA registering none at all completed, compared with a typical 20%, citing soil conditions which one scout termed "super saturated", adding it "will be a while before [soil] preparation can take place".
Another scout said that "continued rain… will most likely delay corn planting significantly", while another reported that "extremely wet conditions have delayed corn, and rice as well as spring vegetable garden land preparation and planting".
With the dollar rally stalling, if problems persist with weather in the US and South America, where excessive rains in parts of Argentina and Brazil are concerning investors, "I would foresee a grain market that could finish the week higher".
One potential setback to a rally could be further findings of bird flu in the US poultry flock, a factor which is provoking fears of curtailed growth in the sector, so stemming the need for feed too.