Wheat Market Outlook - February 9, 2026

Market Outlook - Wheat

• Bids to Canadian Prairie producers have been relatively flat with basis improvements being thrown at producer bids to entice product into the system when needed on futures drops. The market sits comfortably for the time being but will keep its focus onto winter wheat conditions in the Black Sea, European Union and United States. All initial reports for these areas remain mostly positive as they are believed to have escaped the worst of the winterkill scenarios mid-January. Some drought issues in the U.S. winter wheat growing region and some mixed state by state analytics in the periodical updates provided on the overwintering crop. Once dormancy breaks, that is when we will know the best and the market will likely stay sideways until it gets a solid feel of what that crop looks like. Aside from this, demand drive is what the market will need to see to chew away at some of the increased stocks that have ended up on the global balance sheet. As for Western Canadian wheat values, we are continuing to anticipate a neutral market for the coming weeks ahead as we currently sit in a demand driven market and global supplies have grown but are well understood. Canadian wheat has been doing a good job at maintaining its competitiveness in the global market and will need to do so to move out our larger inventories. We expect sideways markets for the near future.

Market Outlook - Durum

• Price outlook overall for the crop appears relatively flat as has been for much of the marketing year for western Canadian producers. Algeria’s tender for durum helps chew up a few more tonnes of Canadian durum. Stocks are higher than the year prior in Canada / globally and exports are strong vs where anticipations were at the beginning of the season. Turkey has turned into a net importer of durum, and we will need to see how demand into some of our key markets forecasts out. Markets are focused on how Canadian and global ending stocks will shake out for durum and how the North African and Mediterranean, European Union crop prospects appear over the coming months. As of right now, all reports show favorable conditions for the cropping regions. Markets remain in a demand driven market with limited production news to send the market in either direction.