Winter Climate Outlook

Nov 21, 2014

The winter climate outlook, released today, no longer shows increased likelihood of above average temperatures in South Dakota for the coming season, said Laura Edwards, SDSU Extension Climate Field Specialist.

"The outlook, issued by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, describes the temperature and precipitation forecast for December and the remainder of the winter season," Edwards said.

Edwards explained that one of the most significant indicators of winter season climate can be El Nino or La Nina conditions. "Climatologists look to the ocean waters and atmosphere near the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean for clues of what may occur over North America," she said.

The most recent forecast continues to indicate El Nino will develop this winter, but is now just 60 percent likely, as compared to about 70 percent just a couple of months ago. "There remains a fair amount of uncertainty, as a result, in the climate outlook for this coming winter, with a 40 percent chance of remaining in neutral conditions, neither El Nino nor La Nina," she said.

The December forecast and seasonal outlook through February, no longer shows warmer than average temperatures more likely in South Dakota and the northern Plains. "This is a change from the last outlook that was released a month ago. In addition to a weak El Nino event, the current long-range forecast shows the possibility of another cold outbreak affecting our region at the end of November into early December. In combination with existing snow cover, this forecast of a cold outbreak would minimize any chance of above average temperatures for the coming month," Edwards said. "Even if we reach El Nino conditions they will be weak and likely would have minimal impact on winter conditions here."

Precipitation outlooks continue to show equal chances of above average, near average, and below average precipitation for the coming three months.

The eastern part of the state was very dry over the fall season, with development of moderate drought in the far northeast. The months of December through February are generally the driest of the year, so the current areas of drought are expected to remain through the next few months.

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Video: How farmers are protecting the soil and our food security | DW Documentary

For a long time, soil was all but ignored. But for years, the valuable humus layer has been thinning. Farmers in Brandenburg are clearly feeling the effects of this on their sandy fields. Many are now taking steps to prepare their farms for the future.

Years of drought, record rainfall and failed harvests: we are becoming increasingly aware of how sensitively our environment reacts to extreme weather conditions. Farmers' livelihoods are at stake. So is the ability of consumers to afford food.

For a few years now, agriculture that focuses solely on maximum yields has been regarded with increasing skepticism. It is becoming more and more clear just how dependent we are on healthy soils.

Brandenburg is the federal state with the worst soil quality in Germany. The already thin, fertile humus layer has been shrinking for decades. Researchers and farmers who are keen to experiment are combating these developments and looking for solutions. Priority is being given to building up the humus layer, which consists of microorganisms and fungi, as well as springtails, small worms and centipedes.

For Lena and Philipp Adler, two young vegetable farmers, the tiny soil creatures are invaluable helpers. On their three-hectare organic farm, they rely on simple, mechanical weed control, fallow areas where the soil can recover, and diversity. Conventional farmer Mark Dümichen also does everything he can to protect soil life on his land. For years, he has not tilled the soil after the harvest and sows directly into the field. His yields have stabilized since he began to work this way.

Isabella Krause from Regionalwert AG Berlin-Brandenburg is convinced after the experiences of the last hot summers that new crops will thrive on Brandenburg's fields in the long term. She has founded a network of farmers who are promoting the cultivation of chickpeas with support from the scientific community.