By Hope Kirwan
Spring planting is around the corner for Wisconsin farmers. The latest data shows producers intend to put a lot fewer acres of soybeans in the ground amid retaliatory tariffs from China and higher production costs.
Federal data shows Wisconsin farmers plan to plant 1.9 million acres of soybeans this year. That’s 250,000 acres, or nearly 12 percent, less than in 2024. Nationally, planned soybean acres were down about 4 percent.
Since President Donald Trump first placed tariffs on Chinese goods in February, the trade war between China and the U.S. has continued to escalate. American soybeans have been one of the goods targeted by Chinese import taxes, creating significant uncertainty for a crop that relies heavily on exports.
Last week, the day after Trump announced a 10 percent baseline tax on imports from all countries and even higher rates for China, the Wisconsin Soybean Association said in a statement that the group was “extremely concerned for the state’s farm economy.”
The association said during the previous Trump administration’s trade war in 2018 and 2019, U.S. agriculture experienced over $27 billion in losses, with soybeans comprising 71 percent.
“Our soybean farmers are already struggling. Crop prices are down over 40% over the past two years, and the president’s decision is already negatively impacting our producers,” Doug Rebout, president of the Wisconsin Soybean Association, said in the group’s letter.
But while the soybean market has taken a hit, corn prices haven’t felt the same pressure from increasing tariffs. That’s according to Kevin Bernhardt, agribusiness professor at the University of Wisconsin-Platteville.
Bernhardt estimates less than a fifth of U.S. corn is exported, compared to nearly half of U.S. soybeans. He said that makes corn less vulnerable in the escalating trade war. But that doesn’t mean switching crops is a sure path to profits.
“Neither (crop has) prices that put people into profitable positions at this point,” he said. “But I think the short term guess is that soybeans potentially are going to fall further because of that export picture, and perhaps corn is the safer bet.”
Wisconsin farmers intend to plant 3.95 million acres of corn this year, according to the federal data. That’s about 5 percent more than in 2024, roughly the same increase reported by farmers across the country.
Josh Kamps, regional crops educator for UW-Madison’s Division of Extension, said planting decisions on most acres are often predetermined based on a four-year crop rotation schedule.
“If we’re going to grow corn this year and soybeans next year and wheat the year after, we pretty much know that on a majority of our acres in Wisconsin,” said Kamps, who works with farmers in Jefferson, Rock and Walworth counties.
Federal crop data shows farmers planted less corn across the U.S. last year. Planted acres of corn were down 7.5 percent in Wisconsin last June, an even larger decline than the 3 percent decrease reported nationally.
If realized, this year’s forecast would put planted corn acres just below 2023 levels for Wisconsin. Nationally, planned corn acres are about 1 percent higher than the 2023 planting.
Pat Mullooly grows soybeans and corn on his family’s farm in Rock County and works as an agronomist. He also represents southern Wisconsin on the Wisconsin Soybean Marketing Board.
While he said there has been a late shift in farmers’ planting intentions, Mullooly said the decline in soybean acres has been years in the making. He traces it back to lost export demand from China during the last Trump administration’s 2018 trade war, which he said was taken over by South American countries.
“It’s hard to replace those markets and so that’s been compounded here in the last four or five years,” Mullooly said. “The soybean price has just been dwindling back on us, and inputs are up in the last few years, and it’s just hard to pencil in a profit to grow commodity soybeans, this year for sure.”
He said fertilizer prices increased significantly as part of economy-wide inflation coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. But costs for the input have not come down with soybean prices. Farm equipment and replacement parts, much of which comes from Mexico, have also gotten more expensive.
Click here to see more...