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California Drought: Rain is in the Forecast, But It’s Not Enough

Rain is coming…but it won’t be enough to make a dent in California’s extreme drought conditions.

Weather forecasters are predicting that Northern California could receive some rainfall this week, but analysts say it will be unlikely to have a real impact on aiding the state’s ongoing drought woes.

According to the National Weather Service, two weather systems are expected to roll in – one on Wednesday evening and one on Friday. The storms could bring several inches of rain to the coast.

The state is dealing with what looks to be the driest year on record. Government officials say that every part of the state is experiencing some degree of drought, most notably the state’s agriculture regions.

What’s more concerning is that February tends to be the wettest month for California, which means the state is still well below average precipitation expectations for the month.  

Despite the gloom, there is a glimmer of hope - some experts are predicting that the chance of an El Niño event occurring this summer is growing. If that does happen, it could bring heavy rainfall to the state.
 


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Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”

Video: Is China Buying US Soybeans + USDA Nov 14th Crop Report could be “Game Changing”


After a week of a U.S./China trade truce, markets/trade is skeptical that we have not seen a signed agreement nor heard much from China or seen any details. There are rumors that China is buying soybean futures & not the physical. Trust in Trump?
12 MMT of U.S. soybean purchases by China by year-end is better than 0 but we all need to give it more time and give it a chance to unfold. China did lower the tariffs on Ag and is buying U.S. wheat and sorghum.
U.S. supreme court could rule against Trumps tariffs, but the Trump administration does have a plan B.
U.S. government shutdown is now the longest in history at 38 days.
But despite a U.S. government shutdown we will be getting a USDA November crop report next Friday and it could be “game changing.” If the USDA provides a bullish surprise with lower U.S. corn and soybean yields and ending stocks that are lower than expected both corn and soybean futures will break out above their ceilings at $4.35/bu and $11.35/bu respectively.
The funds continued their selling in live and feeder cattle futures on continued fears that the Trump administration want to lower U.S. beef prices. The fundamentals have not changed, only market psychology has.
Stocks markets continue to worry about a weak U.S. job market, but you can blame ChatGPT for that. In the future, we will have a more efficient, productive and growing economy with a higher unemployment rate until we have more skilled AI workers.
After 34 new record highs in the S & P 500 and 124 new records in the NASDAQ in 2025 we are back to a correction and investor profit taking as AI valuations may have gotten too stretched near-term ahead of NVDA’s 3rd quarter earnings announcement on Nov. 19th. But this is not an AI bubble.
75% of Tesla shareholders approved a $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk!
It has rained in South America in the last 7 days, but both the American and European models agree that Central Brazil remains dry in the next 14-days!