Canadian wheat and canola harvests beat expectations after dry spell

Dec 07, 2023

Canadian agriculture has witnessed a significant rebound as farmers are poised to harvest more wheat and canola than previously expected. Statistics Canada's latest report reveals a notable increase in crop production, defying initial concerns due to earlier dry conditions.

The all-wheat production is estimated at 32 million metric tons, marking the second lowest in six years, yet showing an improvement from the September estimate of 29.8 million. This figure notably surpasses the average industry expectation of 31.1 million tons. The increase is attributed to better-than-expected yields and late-summer rains that revived some crops.

Spring wheat production, essential for baking flour, is expected to reach 24.8 million tons, exceeding both StatsCan's earlier estimate and the average trade prediction. Durum wheat, crucial for pasta making, is set to hit 4 million tons, making it the second-smallest harvest in 13 years. This decrease is a reflection of the tight global supplies affecting the wheat market.

In the canola sector, farmers are projected to produce 18.3 million tons, a slight increase from the previous report but a marginal decrease from last year. This figure aligns with the average industry guess.

These developments come amid a backdrop of global wheat ending stocks declining for four consecutive years, influenced by varied factors like Canada's drought and heavy rain in Australia. Canada, being the world's fourth-largest wheat exporter and the top canola exporter, plays a pivotal role in the global agriculture market.

The report's findings, based on a farmer survey, provide a much-needed positive outlook for Canadian agriculture, reflecting the sector's resilience and adaptability in the face of climatic challenges.

Video: U.S.-China Trade “Truce” + U.S. Fed Cuts Rates Again

The market was hoping for a US-China trade deal, but we got a trade “truce” for now from the keenly awaited Trump-Xi meeting at the APEC Summit.
China commits to minimum purchase commitments of 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans during the “current season” and a minimum of 25 MMT annually through 2028.
U.S. Treasury Sec Bessent said other Asian countries have agreed to buy additional 19 MMT of US soybean.
Soybean futures trading above $11 now- they normally tend to rally to $12.
As expected, US Fed cuts interest rates by -0.25% again in October to 3.75%–4.00%. No further cuts promised for this year but trade looking out to the Dec FOMC.
The Bank of Canada cut interest rates to 2.25% but raised concern over trade war damage.
Soy meal futures, remarkably, have had 14 consecutive higher close sessions. A bull market in soybeans is a bull market in soy meal!
Cattle futures lower as funds unwind out of cattle for now due to Trump headlines and objective to lower beef prices.
All major stock indices climb to new record highs. It was Mag 7 reporting week, which had mixed results. But we now have the first $5 trillion company in Nvidia!