Farms.com Home   Ag Industry News

Cdn. farmers in the middle of the trade war

Cdn. farmers in the middle of the trade war

Decisions between the U.S. and China affect Canadian ag

By Diego Flammini
Staff Writer
Farms.com

Canadian farmers are stuck on the sidelines watching commodity prices fluctuate as trade talks between the United States and China start and stall.

In March 2018, when the U.S. kicked off the trade war by asking the United States Trade Representative to investigate applying tariffs on Chinese goods, soybeans traded for almost US$11 per bushel.

Prices have risen and fallen since that time, and as of Tuesday afternoon traded for about US$8.65 per bushel.

Watching the two countries exchange tariffs is hard, said Ken Durham, a cash crop producer from Niagara, Ont.

“The trade war hurts all farmers big time because we are at the mercy of the politics,” he told Farms.com. “Regardless of where our soybeans go, (the trade war) still affects the Chicago Board of Trade and the world price for soybeans.”

Gord Masters, a cash crop and beef producer from Kawartha Lakes, Ont. agrees.

“It wouldn’t surprise me if the bottom fell out on some of these commodity prices,” he told Farms.com.

The difficulty of managing a farm business during the trade war, paired with weather challenges, could be enough for some producers to leave the industry.

“When you look at everything that’s happened across North America, this year might weed some farmers out and they won’t be able to survive the year,” Durham said.

Canada can do something to repair its relationship with China and present itself as a source of good ag products, Masters and Durham agreed.

Letting Meng Wanzhou, the chief operating officer for Huawei Technologies, return to China could help restore access for canola and other ag commodities, they said.


Trending Video

Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?


Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.