OMAFRA releases Canola Seasonal Summary

Nov 17, 2016

Quality and yield acceptable throughout Ontario

By Diego Flammini
Assistant Editor, North American Content
Farms.com

OMAFRA released its Canola Seasonal Summary to give producers a general idea of how canola crops fared in Ontario this year.

The number of insured canola acres were about 30,000 in 2016, compared to 25,000 last year.

Depending on where farmers were located, the weather dictated their planting schedule.

“In the southern half of Ontario a majority of the acres were planted in the last week of April and first week of May,” OMAFRA said. “Spring conditions in northeastern Ontario were not much different than further south, so planting was relatively early in Temiskaming and Nipissing. Towards Cochrane, wet weather pushed planting back into June.”

Canola

When it came to insects and diseases, OMAFRA said there was a limited amount of spraying for flea beetle in 2016 and that seed treatments were effective in protecting plants.

Other pests discovered in canola crops required more attention.

“By the 1^st of June, swede midge had been detected in Wellington, Renfrew and Grey counties, and had reached threshold numbers in New Liskeard.”

Cabbage seedpod weevil was identified at threshold levels in Bruce and Grey counties and some fields were sprayed, according to OMAFRA.

OMAFRA reports canola yields were “good for the most part.” The average yield, based on the number of insured acres, is lower this year at 2,095 lb/ac, compared to 2,341 lb/ac in 2015.

County/Region Source: OMAFRA	Average canola yield
Cochrane, Rainy River, Thunder Bay	2,256 lb/ac
Manitoulin, Sudbury, Temiskaming	2,006 lb/ac
Nipissing	2,719 lb/ac
Bruce	1,820 lb/ac
Grey	2.058 lb/ac
Wellington	2,322 lb/ac
Kawartha Lakes, Northumberland, Peterborough, Prince Edward	1,289 lb/ac
Lennox and Addington, Renfrew	1,967 lb/ac

Video: Will the 2025 USDA December Crop Report Be a Market Mover/Surprise?

Historically, the USDA December crop report is a non-event or another dud report as the USDA reserves any final supply changes to the final report in January of the following year in this case 2026. But after the longest U.S. government shutdown in history at 43 days and no October crop report will they provide more data/surprise and make an exception?
Our China U.S. soybean purchase tracker is now at 26.6% or a total of 3.2 mmt but for traders it’s taking too long to unfold.
The final Stats Canada production report was bearish canola and wheat projection a record crop in both (it adds to the global glut of supplies) and bullish local corn and soybean prices in Ontario/Quebec thanks to a drought. It will not help the fund flow short-term, the USDA may need to offset it?
A U.S. Fed interest rate cut of another 25-basis point next Wednesday (probability 87.1%) could help fund flow and sentiment in stock and ag commodities into year end.
More inflows into Bitcoin this past week saw prices rebound back above 90,000 with support at 82,000 and resistance at 96,000.
A V-shaped bottom in cattle suggest the lows are in after Mexico reported another new world screwworm case. Lower weights, seasonal demand and higher U.S. beef select/choice values with a continued closure of the Mexican border to cattle will result in a resumption of higher cattle futures into yearend.
Australia is expected to produce its 3rd largest wheat crop ever at 36 mmt adding to the global glut of supplies.
Reports of ASF in hogs in Spain the largest pork exporter in Europe could see the U.S. win more pork export business long-term.
If the rains verify into next week of 3-5 inches for Brazil it would go a long way to fixing the dry regions from the last 2-months, but the European weather model has been wrong for the past 2-months!
Natural gas futures are surging to the 3rd price count as frigid hold temps set in.
CDN $ is also surging to end the week on a very resilient economy and better employment numbers suggesting no interest rate cuts next week.
Finally, the CFTC report showed funds were net buyers of soybeans but sellers of corn, canola and wheat. In real time the funds have gone back to selling as they take some profits.