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Rabobank Forecast: Global Fertilizer Oversupply Through Q1

Robobank Provides Bearish View of Fertilizer, with Exception of Urea

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Rabobank published its most recent report on the global fertilizer industry, which forecasts oversupply through Q1, 2013, with the exception of urea. The bank predicts that global fertilizer will remain range-bound, with market fundamentals staying balanced through Q1.

The global trading of fertilizer was slow through Q4 2012, with price changes being mixed in fertilizer. However, demand on Q4 is typically lower due to factors such as seasonality.

“Looking ahead, as agricultural markets are faced with the challenge of rebuilding global stocks next season, and given the precariously balanced fundamentals, global agri commodity prices are expected to remain at elevated levels in 2013,” says Rabobank analyst Dirk Jan Kennes. 

Urea global markets were high - but flat through Q4, 2012. On the demand side of the equation, Granular urea prices experienced a premium over prilled urea. Rabobank predicts that Q1 for urea will be largely driven by the Northern Hemisphere.

Important markets to watch will be India and China.

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