Rabobank Forecast: Global Fertilizer Oversupply Through Q1

Jan 18, 2013

Robobank Provides Bearish View of Fertilizer, with Exception of Urea

Rabobank published its most recent report on the global fertilizer industry, which forecasts oversupply through Q1, 2013, with the exception of urea. The bank predicts that global fertilizer will remain range-bound, with market fundamentals staying balanced through Q1.

The global trading of fertilizer was slow through Q4 2012, with price changes being mixed in fertilizer. However, demand on Q4 is typically lower due to factors such as seasonality.

“Looking ahead, as agricultural markets are faced with the challenge of rebuilding global stocks next season, and given the precariously balanced fundamentals, global agri commodity prices are expected to remain at elevated levels in 2013,” says Rabobank analyst Dirk Jan Kennes.

Urea global markets were high - but flat through Q4, 2012. On the demand side of the equation, Granular urea prices experienced a premium over prilled urea. Rabobank predicts that Q1 for urea will be largely driven by the Northern Hemisphere.

Important markets to watch will be India and China.

Video: Evolution of Beef Cattle Farming

The Clear Conversations podcast took to the road for a special episode recorded in Nashville during CattleCon, bringing listeners straight into the heart of the cattle industry. Host Tracy Sellers welcomed rancher Steve Wooten of Beatty Canyon Ranch in Colorado for a wide-ranging discussion that blended family history and sustainability, particularly as it relates to the future of beef production.

Sustainability emerged as a central theme of the conversation, a word that Wooten acknowledges can mean very different things depending on who you ask. For him, sustainability starts with the soil. Healthy soil produces healthy grass, which supports efficient cattle capable of producing year after year with minimal external inputs. It’s an approach that equally considers vegetation, animal efficiency, and long-term profitability.

That philosophy aligned naturally with Wooten’s involvement in the U.S. Roundtable for Sustainable Beef, where he served as a representative for the Colorado Cattlemen’s Association. The roundtable brings together the entire beef supply chain—from producers to retailers—along with universities, NGOs, and allied industries. Its goal is not regulation, Wooten emphasized, but collaboration, shared learning, and continuous improvement.