High input costs may reshape crop choices ahead of the 2026 seeding season
Farm Credit Canada (FCC) Economics re-affirms what every Canadian farmer already knows, Canadian farmers are approaching the 2026 seeding season with higher uncertainty than usual.
Rising fertilizer prices, influenced by global instability and conflict in the Middle East, are increasing production costs at a time when many crop prices remain under pressure. This combination raises concerns about farm profitability and final planting decisions.
Most crop acres are already planned due to crop rotation and production contracts. However, some acres remain flexible. In normal years, farmers make only minor changes. In 2026, higher fertilizer costs may lead to noticeable adjustments.
Producers may shift land toward crops that require fewer inputs, reduce fertilizer use, or leave some marginal land unseeded.
Early projections from Statistics Canada suggest farmers plan to increase acreage for canola, soybeans, corn, barley, and flax. At the same time, wheat, oats, lentils, and peas are expected to decline. It is important to note that these projections were made before fertilizer prices rose sharply, which could still influence final outcomes.
Historical data shows that up to 7% of Canada’s field crop acres can shift from early intentions. Under current cost conditions, lower fertilizer crops such as soybeans may gain acres, especially in eastern Canada where farmers are more exposed to fertilizer price changes.
Corn acres are less flexible due to livestock demand, so any soybean expansion may reduce wheat acres instead.
Canola also remains well supported. Strong prices, improved export access, and growing domestic demand make canola attractive despite higher input costs. Farmers often prioritize fertilizer use on canola, which could push acres slightly higher than early estimates.
Other crops may also be adjusted. Lentils and durum face weaker prices but use less fertilizer, limiting large declines. Peas, oats, and barley remain uncertain, with lower production costs helping to support acreage in some regions.
Beyond crops, rebuilding Canada’s cattle herd may increase hay land acres. Higher costs may also lead some producers to leave land unseeded, especially in lower-quality fields.
Overall, while dramatic changes are unlikely, enough flexibility exists for farmers to adapt their cropping plans to higher fertilizer prices in 2026.
Photo Credit: FCCSoybean-corn-futures