Optimism for 2026 sparked by new trade bill
Major shifts in the markets during the week of May 20 to 24 were the hot topic during the weekly podcast by experts Farms.com Risk Management Chief Commodity Strategist Moe Agostino and Commodity Strategist Abhinesh Gopal called Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcast.
Agostino shared that the global markets reacted to U.S. President Trump’s renewed trade tensions, including a proposed 50% tariff on EU goods. Stocks fell sharply as investors once again became cautious.
Agostino and Gopal explained that while investors took profits in stocks, they also started buying -- during the stock market dip -- in commodities like grains, specifically corn, which had recently fallen by 50 cents.
The tech giant Apple also came under pressure as the administration warned of a 25% tariff unless iPhones are manufactured in the United States. Analysts say this could raise prices significantly.
A proposed tax bill aimed to boost GDP by 0.5% by 2026, though concerns about national debt remain.
Weather also played a key role in the commodity markets. Rain was forecast for areas like South Dakota and Nebraska, helping offset dryness. Still, the U.S. Corn Belt may face heat and drought risks in late June. These conditions might impact planting acres, now estimated closer to 96 million instead of 97 million.
Canadian canola exports rose, but ending stocks remained low at 1.3 million metric tonnes. Agostino criticized Agriculture and AgriFood Canada's (AAFC) "unusual" accounting, including negative values for feed and waste. Despite this, canola futures rose 27% since mid-March due to tight supply and strong demand.
Elsewhere, Bitcoin hit a record high near $112,000, and U.S. milk prices rose 20%. Cattle on feed reports showed stable trends, suggesting potential price gains by year-end.
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