Corn and Soybeans Weaken After Failed Trade Expectations.
Grain markets experienced another volatile trading week as disappointment surrounding the Trump-Xi summit weighed on prices, despite bullish USDA crop data and ongoing concerns about U.S. wheat production, according to the latest Ag Commodity Corner+ Podcastfor the week of May 11 to 15, 2026, the title of the podcast “A 'Burger' from Trump Xi Summitt + Bullish USDA May Crop Report for Wheat!”
During the podcast, Farms.com experts Moe Agostino, chief commodity strategist, and Abhinesh Gopal, head of commodity research, reviewed major developments impacting grain, livestock, energy, and financial markets.
Agostino and Gopal began with the disappointing news from the week with corn down by 16 percent by the end of the week as traders reacted negatively to the lack of trade information and outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting in China.
Soybeans also weakened after expectations for large Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural products failed to materialize. Agostino described the summit as a “nothing burger,” saying markets had priced in stronger trade commitments ahead of the talks. Funds were removing the Chinese trade premium out of the grains.
Gopal countered that China agreed to purchase 200 Boeing aircraft and extended export registrations for 425 U.S. beef plants for five years, but grain traders were disappointed by the lack of immediate soybean and corn buying announcements.
However, following the podcast on Saturday, May 17, the White House released a fact sheet that says China committed to purchase at least $17 billion annually of additional U.S. agricultural products through 2028 — separate from prior soybean purchase commitments — while restoring access for U.S. beef and poultry exports as noted above.
The USDA’s May WASDE report, however, offered supportive fundamentals. New crop corn yields were projected at 183 bushels per acre, with ending stocks below 2 billion at 1.957 billion bushels, below the previous year.
Soybean yields were forecast at 53 bushels per acre, with ending stocks projected at a tight 310 million bushels. Agostino and Gopal say there will be little room for production problems if export demand improves or yields fall.
Wheat remained the strongest commodity markets story of the week. USDA projected the smallest U.S. wheat crop in 54 years, with (HRW) hard red winter wheat conditions continuing to deteriorate across the Plains. Kansas City wheat futures briefly reached new contract highs near $7.50 before retreating later in the week.
The Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour estimated Kansas wheat yields at 38.9 bushels per acre, well below the five-year average of 45.5 bushels. Drought conditions across key HRW wheat states also intensified, raising concerns about further crop abandonment.
The analysts also highlighted stronger soymeal demand due to trade disruptions involving Argentine shipments into Europe. Soymeal prices moved toward the $340 level, supported by increased export interest.
Outside the grain markets, crude oil prices climbed as tensions tied to the Iran conflict continued supporting energy markets. U.S. inflation data also showed renewed upward pressure, with U.S. April consumer inflation rising 3.8 percent year-over-year and wholesale inflation increasing 6.1 percent on an annualized basis.
Other activity in the markets of note included managed money funds reducing long grain positions during the week. Analysts estimate in real time funds now hold roughly 885,000 net long grain contracts after heavy selling followed the Trump-Xi summit disappointment.
Despite short-term pressure, as always, Agostino said weather remains the key long-term factor for grain markets heading into summer, particularly if drought conditions expand into major Corn Belt states later in the growing season.
Watch the podcast “A 'Burger' from Trump Xi Summitt + Bullish USDA May Crop Report for Wheat!” below.
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