Ag exports fall and imports rise in 2025
The United States agricultural sector recorded a historic trade deficit in the first half of 2025, marking a major shift from decades of consistent surpluses. According to the US Department of Agriculture, the deficit reached $28.6 billion by June, with agricultural exports trailing imports by $4.1 billion that month — a 14% increase over the previous year.
This decline reflects limited ability to expand crop and livestock production, along with a growing US demand for imported fruits, vegetables, and other goods. Trade tensions have also contributed, particularly the ongoing trade war with China. Once a top buyer of US farm products, China has increasingly turned to Brazil for crops such as soybeans. In fact, US soybean exporters had sold just over 3 million metric tons for 2025/26 as of late July, the lowest volume for the date in two decades, with no purchases yet from China.
Brazilian companies, including beef producer Minerva SA, have increased shipments to the US ahead of new tariffs. Meanwhile, more American crops are being processed domestically for biofuel production, reducing export surpluses.
In contrast, the overall US trade deficit — including goods and services — narrowed by 16% in June to $60.2 billion, highlighting that agriculture’s challenges are unique to the sector.
The US exported just $5.5 billion in agricultural goods to China in the first half of 2025, down sharply from $11.8 billion a year earlier, after both nations raised tariffs above 125%.
Looking ahead, the USDA projects the agricultural trade deficit for fiscal year 2025 to reach $49.5 billion, up from $31.8 billion in FY24. With imports estimated at $220 billion and exports forecast at $170.5 billion, the imbalance is expected to persist.
Photo Credit: gettyimages-artqu