USMCA, or CUSMA, remains in force until 2036, but renewed uncertainty raises questions for cross-border agricultural trade, livestock producers, and supply chains across North America.
The future of North America's most important trade agreement has entered a new phase after the United States formally declined to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) in its current form during the treaty's mandatory six-year review.
The decision sets the stage for additional negotiations while leaving the agreement in force for the foreseeable future.
For agriculture, the announcement is significant because Canada, the United States, and Mexico are among each other's most important trading partners. Farmers, livestock producers, food processors, and agribusinesses across the continent rely on the agreement to facilitate billions of dollars in annual trade and provide certainty for long-term business planning.
In a statement issued following the July 1 review meeting, U.S. Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer confirmed that the United States did not support renewing the agreement in its current form.
"The United States did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form. As a result, the USMCA is not renewed," Greer said. He added that the United States would continue discussions with Canada and Mexico to address what Washington views as shortcomings in the agreement and concerns related to trade deficits. Despite the decision, Greer emphasized that the agreement remains in force pending further negotiations or termination.
Agreement Remains Active
While the announcement generated headlines, it does not mean the immediate end of USMCA.
Trade rules, tariff preferences, and market access provisions remain unchanged for now. The agreement continues to operate and is scheduled to remain in force until 2036, with opportunities for renewal still available if the three countries reach consensus in future discussions.
Canada's chief negotiator, the Honourable Dominic LeBlanc, reaffirmed Canada's commitment to preserving the agreement.
"In this meeting, I reaffirmed Canada's unwavering support for the CUSMA and its renewal," LeBlanc said following the trilateral discussions. He noted that the agreement supports millions of jobs throughout North America and provides Canadian businesses with stable access to two key export markets.
Why Agriculture Is Watching Closely
Agriculture is among the sectors most dependent on predictable cross-border trade between the three countries.
Canadian farmers export significant volumes of grains, oilseeds, livestock products, and food products into the United States and Mexico. Likewise, American producers rely heavily on export opportunities throughout North America. Any uncertainty surrounding future trade rules can affect investment decisions, production planning, and commodity markets.
The agriculture sector was quick to react
The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC), representing more than 60,000 U.S. pork producers, emphasized the importance of maintaining uninterrupted trade relationships with Canada's and Mexico's markets.
According to the organization, Canada and Mexico together account for roughly one-third of all U.S. pork exports. The group described trade as a bright spot for producers facing numerous other challenges within the industry.
The NPPC noted that pork exports generate more than $66 in value for every hog marketed in the United States and support more than 155,000 American jobs. In 2025, Mexico ranked as the leading export destination for U.S. pork, while Canada ranked fourth. Those market positions underscore the importance of preserving stable access to both countries.
While the organization expressed disappointment that an immediate renewal was not secured, it welcomed the commitment to continue negotiations.
Bryan Goodman, a spokesman for the Agricultural Coalition for USMCA - a broad alliance of agricultural organizations - released the following statement:? "USMCA is without a doubt critical to the livelihood of farmers, fishers and rural communities across the country who rely on exports to Mexico and Canada, and to obtain key inputs used in U.S. farming operations."
"In addition to revenue generation for farmers, USMCA also provides certainty, allowing the agricultural industry and farmers to make long-term strategic and planting decisions. ?
??
?"We are encouraged by the negotiations already underway and urge all three countries to continue making progress towards a renewed and strengthened agreement."
What Happens Next?
The U.S. decision effectively shifts USMCA into a new period of review and negotiation rather than extending the agreement for another 16 years at this stage. Trade officials from all three countries are expected to continue discussions aimed at resolving outstanding issues.
The United States has already announced additional negotiations with Mexico later this month, while conversations with Canada are also expected to continue.
Canada continues to advocate for maintaining and strengthening the agreement. With billions of dollars in goods and services crossing the Canada-U.S. border daily and deeply integrated agricultural supply chains throughout North America, policymakers, farm groups, and agribusiness leaders will be closely monitoring the next round of talks.
For now, farmers on both sides of the border retain the benefits of the existing agreement, but the path toward long-term certainty remains a work in progress.