Nutrien's Eric Snodgrass warns expanding drought risk, persistent smoke, and growing El Niño influence could challenge crop production across key agricultural regions.
A growing flash drought across the central United States, lingering wildfire smoke impacts, and the rapid development of El Niño are creating a challenging weather outlook for North American agriculture.
According to the latest weather analysis from Nutrien meteorologist Eric Snodgrass in his Nutrien Weather Intelligence Report, weather patterns over the past week have been dominated by a large ridge of high pressure across the central United States, leading to uneven rainfall distribution and increasing soil moisture concerns in key crop-producing regions.
While recent storms brought relief to parts of southern Canada and Ontario by significantly reducing wildfire activity, new fires in Washington and Oregon are contributing fresh smoke to air masses moving across the United States.
"The central U.S. ridge and the collapse in atmospheric momentum are the whole story," Snodgrass noted in his latest outlook, emphasizing that weather predictability remains unusually low.
Soil Moisture Declines Raise Crop Concerns
One of the most significant developments for agriculture is the rapid deterioration of soil moisture across portions of the central United States.
Snodgrass reported that soil moisture levels in the top 40 centimetres of soil have declined sharply beneath the persistent ridge pattern, confirming that a flash drought is now developing.
Flash droughts can develop quickly during periods of high temperatures, strong evaporation rates, and limited rainfall. Unlike traditional droughts that evolve over months, flash droughts can emerge within weeks and place sudden stress on crops during critical stages of development.
The concern is particularly relevant for corn and soybean-producing regions where crop conditions remain heavily dependent on timely summer precipitation.
Although thunderstorms continue to occur, Snodgrass said rainfall patterns remain "hyper-local," creating a checkerboard effect where some fields receive significant moisture while neighbouring areas remain dry.
Wildfire Smoke Remains an Agricultural Issue
Recent rainfall across Ontario and other parts of southern Canada helped suppress wildfire activity and improve air quality conditions in several regions. However, smoke remains a concern across portions of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeastern United States.
New fires in the Pacific Northwest are expected to contribute additional smoke during the week, even as overall Canadian fire activity has declined from recent peaks.
Severe Storms and Flooding Continue
The weather pattern remains highly active in several regions.
Over the weekend, strong wind-driven storms moved through the Ohio Valley, eastern Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic regions. Meanwhile, south-central Texas experienced severe flooding after receiving more than 30 inches of rainfall in some locations west of San Antonio.
Additional severe weather threats are expected through the middle of the week.
An enhanced risk of severe storms was identified across Wisconsin, eastern Iowa, and northern Illinois before shifting toward the Northeast, eastern Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic states, and parts of North Carolina.
Monsoonal moisture is also expected to continue producing storm activity across the southwestern United States, increasing concerns about localized flooding, especially in areas affected by recent wildfires where burn scars can accelerate runoff.
Forecast Confidence Remains Low
One of the biggest challenges for farmers may be the lack of confidence in longer-range forecasts.
Snodgrass said weak atmospheric momentum across North America is allowing weather systems to drift without a strong steering flow. As a result, thunderstorm placement and rainfall amounts become increasingly difficult to predict beyond a few days.
Computer forecast models are also showing unusually large disagreements.
For example, projections for Lincoln, Nebraska next weekend differ by more than 20 degrees Fahrenheit between major forecasting models, reflecting substantial uncertainty regarding temperature trends.
As a result, Snodgrass advises producers to focus on weather ranges and risk scenarios rather than relying on specific long-range forecasts.
El Niño Strengthens Ahead of Fall and Winter
Looking beyond the immediate forecast, meteorologists continue to monitor a rapidly strengthening El Niño.
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific have reached approximately 2.1°C above normal, with additional strengthening expected in the coming months.
According to Snodgrass, El Niño is likely to become a major driver of global weather patterns from mid-August through next spring.
Current model guidance suggests that many of the present weather trends could continue into August, including drier risks across parts of the central United States and more active precipitation patterns in the eastern regions of North America.
The Climate Prediction Center's drought outlook through October generally supports continued drought development in portions of the Pacific Northwest and parts of the central United States, while drought improvement is expected in some eastern and Intermountain regions due to increased precipitation.
Looking Ahead
For North American producers, the key themes entering August remain drought expansion in the central United States, persistent wildfire smoke risks, highly localized rainfall patterns, and growing El Niño influence.
While a brief cooldown is expected across portions of the central United States during the early part of this week, warmer temperatures are expected to return by next weekend.
With forecast confidence remaining low and weather extremes continuing to develop across multiple agricultural regions, producers may need to stay particularly vigilant as crop development enters a critical stretch of the growing season.
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