Video: U.S.-China TRADE DEAL OR NO TRADE DEAL + Lower U.S./Canada Interest Rates Impact
Trump/Xi had a productive call today on trade, fentanyl, an end to the Ukraine/Russia war and TikTok but it looks like Chinese tariffs will have to be extended for an additional 90-days to mid-February of 2026 as Trump may not visit China until early 2026 and Xi will make a U.S. visit thereafter. They will still meet at the APEC summit in South Korea, but it does not look like a trade deal by than.
It looks like the farmers will have a winter without China buying U.S. soybeans and will have to wait until 2026? The short-term momentum has turned bearish as we need to buy more time and soybean futures break back below all moving averages.
U.S. and Canada lowered interest rates this week with Canada’s 8th cut down to 2.5% while the U.S. Fed lowered interest rates for the first time in 9 months. Mexico and Canada are working closely together on trade ahead of the negotiations on USMCA review in 2026. The Canadian economy remains weak, so more cuts are most likely in the cards, and the U.S. Fed said 2 more cuts in 2025 and 1 in 2026. Do not fight the Fed or the tape!
A U.S. framework trade deal with Taiwan was announced with $10 billion ag purchases over 4 years but this is lower than their 2024 purchases.
2025 U.S. crop yields keep coming in lower than last year so that begs the question whether yields come in lower than last year's yields at 179.3 and 50.7 bpa. We will know more in the USDA Oct. 9th crop report.
Stats Canada provided a model-based August production update projecting higher wheat and canola crops as farmers are seeing better than expected yields with more than 50% of the harvest complete.
It remains dry in the ECB/South into the end of October in the long-term forecasts. The winter 3-month forecast is wet in the U.S. Midwest but dry in the south a typically La Nina forecast.
South American expected to get rain this coming week that could increase the soybean planting pace.
U.S. butter prices fall 38% to a 2021 low as excess supplies weigh on prices.