By Patricio Grassini
Key Takeaways
Warm nights weigh on irrigated yield potential: Above-normal nighttime temperatures continued to increase the probability of below-average irrigated yields, particularly in eastern and southwestern Nebraska and Kansas.
Rainfed outlook remains mostly favorable: Most rainfed locations are projected to have near- or above-average yields, supported by near- to above-average rainfall across much of the Corn Belt in recent weeks.
Regional yields remain near the historical trend: Despite variation among locations and production systems, the regional average yield is projected to finish close to the historical trend, with a +2% deviation.
As the 2026 growing season moves toward its conclusion, a clearer picture of corn yield potential is emerging across the U.S. Corn Belt.
Simulations of corn growth and end-of-season yield potential were completed on Aug. 25 for 43 locations across the U.S. Corn Belt using the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and extension educators from 10 universities. Simulated crop stages and yield forecasts for each location are provided in Table 1.
This article summarizes the simulated crop stages and yield forecasts. Details on the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model, methods used to simulate crop development and forecast end-of-season yields, and guidance on interpreting and using these forecasts are available in a previous article.
Except for the northern sites (Minnesota, North Dakota, and Michigan), warm weather prevailed over the past three weeks. Nighttime temperatures were consistently above the historical average, which increases crop respiration, affects crop growth and could lead to a shorter grain-filling period.
Source : unl.edu