U.S. Corn Exports Higher With Reduced Competition
U.S. 2011/12 corn exports are increased 50 million bushels this month to 1.7 billion as
lower production prospects in Argentina reduce competition in global markets. U.S.
corn supplies are projected up slightly due to increased imports, but the larger increase in
exports leaves ending stocks down. Global corn trade is up, supported by increased
imports by the EU. World coarse grain production is forecast lower mostly due to a 4.0-
million-ton reduction in projected corn production in Argentina. With world coarse
grain use projected nearly unchanged, global ending stocks decline.
Higher Trade Boosts Feed Grain Supplies and Use for 2011/12
U.S. feed grain supplies projected for 2011/12 edge up 0.3 million metric tons this
month to 358.3 million, with increases for corn and oats imports. Supplies,
however, remain down 6 percent from last year. Total feed grain use is up due to
higher projected corn exports. At 335.5 million metric tons, forecast use is raised
1.3 million tons from last month but remains down 4 percent from the previous
season. With demand exceeding production in 2011/12, ending stocks are expected
to be drawn down 9.5 million tons from an already low carryin. At a projected 22.8
million tons, stocks would be the lowest since the end of the 1995/96
marketing year.
Feed and residual use for the four feed grains plus wheat on a September-August
marketing year basis is lowered this month to 126.2 million metric tons due to
lower wheat feed use. Grain-consuming animal units (GCAUs) are projected at
93.6 million this month, down slightly from last month due to a very small
inventory change. Broiler weights are down, contributing to lower feed use. Feed
and residual use per animal unit in 2011/12 is unchanged this month at 1.35 tons,
which is down from 1.39 tons in 2010/11.
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