Beef/Cattle: Recent rains have provided some relief in the drought-affected Southern
United States, but La Niña is expected to continue her influence into 2012. Despite the
drought-induced sell-off of cattle in the South and record-high feed prices, prices for all
cattle have held up well in 2011. However, profit margins for cattle feeders and packers
have been largely negative.
Beef/Cattle Trade: U.S. cattle imports for 2012 are forecast at 2.025 million head, or 2
percent lower than the forecast total for 2011. Beef exports for 2011 are expected to be
21 percent higher, year-over-year at 2.78 billion pounds. The strength in the U.S. beef
export market should continue this year, as exports are expected to be near 2011 levels.
Special Article: “Mexico’s Emerging Role as an Exporter of Beef to the United States”
Pork/Hogs: Estimates published in The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report point to small
increases in hog production in 2012. Price effects of larger pork supplies and stable
exports are expected to be largely offset by higher prices of substitute animal proteins,
especially for beef. Live hog prices in 2012 are expected to average $63-$67, almost 2
percent below prices in 2011. Retail pork prices are expected to average in the
low $3.50s.
Poultry: Broiler meat production in fourth-quarter 2011 is expected to total 8.93 billion
pounds, down 50 million from the previous estimate. This adjustment follows year-overyeardeclines in production in both October and November. The number of chicks being
placed for growout has changed considerably over the last several weeks. The number of
chicks being placed for growout now shows a decrease from the same period a year
earlier only about half what it was in mid-November. December prices for whole hen
turkeys averaged $1.07 per pound, up 9 percent from the previous year. Prices in fourthquarter 2011 averaged $1.12 per pound, 8 percent higher than during the same period
in 2010.
With stock levels at the end of 2011 expected to be relatively low, whole hen turkey prices are expected to remain
above year earlier levels through the first half of 2012. Even with table egg production expected higher in fourthquarter 2011, wholesale egg prices have remained strong. Wholesale prices for a dozen grade A large eggs in the
New York market averaged $1.31 in fourth-quarter 2011, up 7 percent from the same period in 2010 and up 11
percent from third-quarter 2011.
Poultry Trade: November 2011 broiler shipments totaled 606.2 million pounds, 9-percent less than a year ago.
Turkey shipments were up from a year earlier. November turkey shipments totaled 68.6 million pounds, a 6-percent
increase from a year ago.
Dairy: Despite a forecast of a small reduction in herd size from 2011, higher milk per cow will raise milk
production in 2012. Exports on both a fats and skims-solids basis are lowered for 2012. The result is lower prices in
2012 than in 2011 for the major dairy products and consequently for the all milk price.
Source: USDA