Abstract: Estimation of a Within-Herd Transmission Rate for African Swine Fever in Vietnam

Apr 14, 2023

We describe results from a panel study in which pigs from a 17-sow African swine fever (ASF) positive herd in Thái Bình province, Vietnam, were followed over time to record the date of onset of ASF signs and the date of death from ASF. Our objectives were to (1) fit a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed disease model to the data with transmission coefficients estimated using approximate Bayesian computation; (2) provide commentary on how a model of this type might be used to provide decision support for disease control authorities. For the outbreak in this herd, the median of the average latent period was 10 days (95% HPD (highest posterior density interval): 2 to 19 days), and the median of the average duration of infectiousness was 3 days (95% HPD: 2 to 4 days). The estimated median for the transmission coefficient was 3.3 (95% HPD: 0.4 to 8.9) infectious contacts per ASF-infectious pig per day. The estimated median for the basic reproductive number, R0, was 10 (95% HPD: 1.1 to 30). Our estimates of the basic reproductive number R0 were greater than estimates of R0 for ASF reported previously. The results presented in this study may be used to estimate the number of pigs expected to be showing clinical signs at a given number of days following an estimated incursion date.

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Video: Exploring Precision Data in Swine Production - Dr. Janice Siegford

In this episode of The Swine it Podcast Show, Dr. Janice Siegford from Michigan State University discusses how precision livestock farming data can support pig health, welfare, transparency, and decision making. She explains why data ownership, privacy, consumer perception, and cost sharing must be addressed as technology becomes more common on farms. Listen now on all major platforms.

“Precision livestock farming data can support producers, veterinarians, certifiers, and consumers by enabling improved monitoring, prediction, and decision-making across the entire production system.”

Meet the guest: Dr. Janice Siegford / janice-siegford-24318839 is a Professor and Associate Chair in the Department of Animal Science at Michigan State University. Her expertise in animal welfare, neuroscience, and zoology supports research on pig behavior, stress resilience, and precision livestock farming. Her work explores early weaning, genetics, and stakeholder perspectives on technology adoption to improve pig care, health, and productivity. Learn more from Dr. Janice Siegford on The Swine it Podcast Show, available on all major platforms.