Abstract: Estimation of a Within-Herd Transmission Rate for African Swine Fever in Vietnam

Apr 14, 2023

We describe results from a panel study in which pigs from a 17-sow African swine fever (ASF) positive herd in Thái Bình province, Vietnam, were followed over time to record the date of onset of ASF signs and the date of death from ASF. Our objectives were to (1) fit a susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed disease model to the data with transmission coefficients estimated using approximate Bayesian computation; (2) provide commentary on how a model of this type might be used to provide decision support for disease control authorities. For the outbreak in this herd, the median of the average latent period was 10 days (95% HPD (highest posterior density interval): 2 to 19 days), and the median of the average duration of infectiousness was 3 days (95% HPD: 2 to 4 days). The estimated median for the transmission coefficient was 3.3 (95% HPD: 0.4 to 8.9) infectious contacts per ASF-infectious pig per day. The estimated median for the basic reproductive number, R0, was 10 (95% HPD: 1.1 to 30). Our estimates of the basic reproductive number R0 were greater than estimates of R0 for ASF reported previously. The results presented in this study may be used to estimate the number of pigs expected to be showing clinical signs at a given number of days following an estimated incursion date.

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Video: Trade Uncertainty and Pork Growth - Cam Dahl

In this episode of The Swine it Podcast Show Canada, Cam Dahl, General Manager of Manitoba Pork Council, discusses how trade uncertainty affects growth across Canadian pork production. He explains why CUSMA, market diversification, non-tariff barriers, access to capital, labor needs, and producer advocacy all matter as the industry plans for investment, exports, and long-term competitiveness. Listen now on all major platforms!

"Trade uncertainty makes access to capital difficult when producers and processors are ready to invest and grow."

Meet the guest: Cam Dahl / cam-dahl-58115832 is the General Manager of Manitoba Pork Council. He has extensive leadership experience across Canadian agriculture, including Cereals Canada, the Canada Grains Council, Manitoba Beef Producers, and the Canadian Grain Commission. His work focuses on policy, advocacy, trade, business development, and strengthening market opportunities for Canadian producers. Learn more from Cam Dahl on The Swine it Podcast Show Canada, available on all major platforms.