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Ag Retail Sales: Large Ag Down Double Digits, Inventories Mixed

Large Ag unit retail sales were down 14.6% year/year, with declines in Row Crop and Combines more than offsetting a very slight increase in 4WDs. Combined US/Canada large Ag unit sales -14.6% year/year in May (-6.1% in May). By category, row crop -12.3%, 4WD tractors +0.8%, combines -28.7%. U.S. dealer inventories down 15.4% year/year in 2WD tractors, +61.1% in 4WD tractors, and down 17.9% in combines; inventories remain the key item to watch, we remain encouraged by early signs of progress particularly in Small Ag and Combines.

  • US and Canada large tractor and combine unit retail sales were down 14.6% year/year in June (May -6.1%, April +12.8%, March -3.1%, February -7.9%, January -13.9%). US large ag sales were down 16.1% following a 6.7% decline in May; Canada sales fell 5.7% following a 3.3% decline in May.
    • US sales: row crop tractors -13.9%, 4WD tractors -1.3%, combines -31.0%.
    • Canada sales: row crop tractors -0.3%, 4WD tractors +10.6%, combines -20.8%
  • 4WD tractor sales +0.8% year/year in June following +5.5% in May; June L3M sales +10.2% year/year vs. +8.0% in May.
    • US dealer inventories of 4WD tractors +61.1% year/year in May, the 19th consecutive increase. On a days-sales basis, inventories up year/year in May to 65 (May 2023: 47) and up sequentially (April: 63), though remaining below pre-Covid days/sales. June typically a below-average month of the year for 4WD tractor sales, averaging 6.5% of annual sales the last five years.
  • Row crop tractor sales -12.3% year/year in June following -8.1% in May; May L3M sales -3.6% vs. +1.6% in May.
    • US row crop tractor inventories +19.1% year/year in May. On a days-sales basis, inventories up year/year in May at 166 (May 2023: 139) and up sequentially (April: 157). June typically an average month of the year for row crop tractor sales, averaging 7.9% of annual sales the last five years.
  • Combine sales -28.7% year/year in June following a 4.6% decline in May; June L3M sales -5.3% vs. -1.1% in May.
    • US combine inventories -17.9% year/year in May, the second consecutive decline. On a days-sales basis, inventories down year/year in May to 80 (May 2023: 83) though up sequentially (April: 69). June typically an average month of the year for combine sales, averaging 8.5% of annual sales the last five years.
  • Mid-range tractor sales -11.6% year/year in June (May -12.0%, April -5.7%) while compact tractor sales were -19.3% year/year (May -11.9%, April -4.9%). June an above-average month for mid-range tractors (averaging 9.9% of annual sales) and compact tractors (averaging 11.1% of annual sales).
Source : Farm Equipment

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US “Flash Drought” Worst in 133-160 Years + Disease taking a Bite out of US 2025 Corn/Soybean Crops

Video: US “Flash Drought” Worst in 133-160 Years + Disease taking a Bite out of US 2025 Corn/Soybean Crops


A dry August and a “flash drought” in the ECB (Eastern Corn Belt) the driest top 10 to 15 years in 150 to 160 years (Ohio the driest in 133 years) plus disease is taking a bite out of the 2025 U.S. corn and soybean crops.
It's going to be an early harvest. This could be the start of the 89-year drought cycle that may have been delayed until 2026 as La Nina maybe returning.
The USDA September crop report is all about record corn ears and record soybean counts but the October USDA crop report will be about pod and ear weights.
Stats Canada reported higher forecasts for the 2025 Canadian Prairies all wheat and canola crops vs. last year based on satellite imagery but are they overestimating production?
The 2025 Great ON Yield Tour and Quebec crop tours are projecting corn and soybean crops below the 10-year average.
China's Vice Commerce Ministry Li Chenggang visits Washington this week as we continue to connect the dots is a positive sign towards a China/U.S. trade deal. But will U.S. farmers have a winter without China as they buy more soybeans from Uruguay/Argentina? U.S. Northern Plain soybean farmers are seeing red with flat prices at $8.97/bu!
U.S. corn exports on record pace up 99% vs. last year.
Fund short covering continues in corn futures bottom is in!