By Alejandro Gutierrez-Li
A top priority of the second Trump administration is to enforce immigration laws, including mass deportations. Since the size of the undocumented population is likely at least 10 million people (Gutierrez-Li, 2025), the removal of a significant number of undocumented individuals could have economic effects on industries that have historically employed them. Such industries include agriculture, construction, and hospitality (Gutierrez-Li, 2026). In the case of farming, foreign workers represent around two thirds of the labor force, with undocumented workers accounting for around 40% of hired crop laborers (USDA, 2026), making agriculture particularly susceptible to immigration policies.
While the production of row crop commodities is highly mechanized, specialty crop agricultural operations common in the Southeast and the West Coast are still heavily reliant on a dependable workforce. Incidentally, undocumented individuals are concentrated in states like California, Florida, Washington, Georgia, and North Carolina (Table 1), where labor-intensive agriculture is prevalent. Despite the recent intensification in immigration enforcement, the reality is that there has already been a reduction in the inflow of undocumented workers to the agricultural sector for several years.
Tightening labor markets and a diminishing supply of undocumented workers have led to significant growth in the number of H-2A visas issued each year, which constitute the only legal channel for bringing foreign agricultural workers to the United States. Since the early 90s, the H-2A program has been gaining popularity among agricultural producers, to the point that more than 300,000 H-2A visas were issued by the U.S. government in 2024 (Figure 1).
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