By Dr. Kenny Burdine
USDA released the April Cattle on Feed report on Thursday April 17th. The Thursday release was due to the 18th being Good Friday. Monthly Cattle on Feed reports estimate inventories for feedlots with capacity over 1,000 head, which represents over 80% of total on-feed inventory in the US. As of April 1, total on-feed inventory was estimated at 11.6 million head, which was 1.6% lower than last April. Feedlot inventories have been running below year ago levels since November 2024 and are likely to stay that way for a while as calf crops have been getting smaller.
March marketings were 1% higher than 2024, which was very close to pre-report estimates. The number that garnered the most attention was March placements, which came in 5% higher than last year. While most analysts expected placements to be higher, this was near the upper end of the range of estimates. February placements were very low, partially due to less-than-ideal weather conditions. This may have led to some pushing of feeder cattle movement into March. High price levels also may have also pulled cattle forward, also leading to higher March placements. I tend not to read a lot into any single month and placements for the 1st quarter of 2025 were down by about 4% from the same three months of 2024.
Friday’s report was also a quarterly cattle on feed report, which included an estimate of the steer / heifer breakdown. With high calf prices and expansion questions looming, this breakdown has been of keen interest for some time. In last week’s report, steers on feed were essentially unchanged from last year, while heifers on feed were down 4%. As a percentage of total on-feed inventory, heifers accounted for 37.6%. This is not a number that suggests widespread heifer retention, but it is worth noting that this is about a percent lower than both April of 2024 and January of 2025.
As we move through spring and into summer, I will be watching pasture conditions very closely. Calf prices are very strong, but no level of profitability can make it rain. Weather will be the primary determinant of whether heifer retention increases during 2025. Beef cow slaughter also bears watching as it has been running well below last year’s levels. And beef cow slaughter was very low in 2024. From my perspective, it appears that liquidation of the cowherd has really slowed down (mostly through reduced cow slaughter). But heifer retention does not appear to be significant enough to suggest we are close to seeing expansion yet. At present, I am expecting beef cow numbers to decrease slightly, or stay about the same, during 2025.
Source : osu.edu