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August Doldrums Chill the Thrill in the Market

By Dr. O.A. Cleveland
 
“The Thrill is Gone, The Thrill is Gone,” so sang B.B. King.
 
From an exciting six months with promises of greatness, the cotton market is now hanging on with all the force it can muster. The market provided growers a clear opportunity to price the 2018 crop between 88 and 94 cents multiple times and even climbed to a high near 95 cents.
 
Yet, the thrill is gone. The opportunity to price in the upper 5% of the price range has been replaced with the opportunity to price in the upper 15% of the price range (80 cents plus). Generally, that would be considered a blessing, and it still is. However, it must seem so unpleasant to those growers who let the mid-90s to mid-80s slip away without doing any pricing.
 
Remember, the market is very cold and non-personal. It always gives you the test first and the lesson afterward.
 
The 82-90 cent trading range – a range we expected to hold – gave way this week to the lower 79-84 cent trading range. Even that requires mentioning the possibility of a low down to 74 cents, with little support below that. Technicians have switched from a weak buy signal to now a strong sell. Even the Wednesday/Thursday rally came with the warning of a dead cat bounce.
 
The August doldrums have finally caught up with the market. Despite the tariff controversy with China, the spat with Turkey, and the conversation about the crop report, traders were very quiet on the week – almost as if the market was on vacation. The market is simply marking time as it searches for direction. Demand will remain strong, and thus, the market will hunt for its rebound, although it may be slight.
 
Many are suggesting that the U.S. crop cannot be 19.2 million bales given the problems in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. However, if there was any lesson to be learned from last year, it was that the seed breeders truly have provided growers with a completely new yield plateau from which to work. Too, while yields have been advanced, quality characteristics also have as well. Last year, the industry did not believe the USDA objective yield surveys over the span of the first three reports, and only “accepted” the reports as USDA continued to find big crops in every state.
 
There can be no doubt that the USDA-NASS survey was accurate with respect to the crop potential as of August 1, 2018. What will the coming months bring? We all are waiting to see. But in the absence of a most unfriendly Mother Nature, a minimum of 19 million bales should be expected.
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Why Rob Saik is Trying to Build the World’s Most Connected Agriculture Network

Video: Why Rob Saik is Trying to Build the World’s Most Connected Agriculture Network

In a recent interview at the SeedLink Conference in Brandon, Man., Rob Saik, author, speaker, and CEO of AGvisorPRO, took a trip down memory lane, reminiscing about the beginnings of his career and what the future holds.

Graduating from the University of Alberta in 1983, Saik embarked on a journey that started in Brandon, Man. “I got a job with Elanko, got a U-Haul truck, threw everything I had into it, drove to the Victoria Inn, and lived there for three months while they tried to find an apartment for me to move into. So I started my career in Brandon,” Saik shared.

Fast forward to the present, Saik has evolved into an accomplished author and speaker, traversing the globe to engage in high-level discussions about the future of agriculture and the critical role it plays in feeding the world. Yet, despite his global presence, he finds himself back in Brandon, addressing a group of seed growers. But why? Saik emphasizes the fundamental importance of seeds, stating, “It all begins with a seed, doesn’t it?”

Reflecting on his own experiences as a farmer, Saik expresses his excitement when a planted seed germinates and evolves into a thriving crop. He underscores the significance of technology and breeding in seed development, recognizing the crucial role they play in ensuring farmers can propagate seeds, grow profitable crops, and contribute to global food security.

Saik delves into the challenges faced by the agricultural community, particularly the rapid pace of technological advancements. He believes that the key lies in connecting farmers to experts swiftly, boosting farmers’ confidence in adopting new technologies, and ensuring the timely implementation of these advancements. According to Saik, this approach is crucial for steering agriculture towards sustainability and profitability.

As Saik works on his upcoming book, tentatively titled prAGmatic, he sheds light on its central theme. “The thesis would be that I want to write a book that takes what the consumer wants, challenges what the consumer believes, and positions that against what the farmers can actually do pragmatically,” he explains. The book aims to bridge the gap between consumer expectations and the realistic capabilities of farmers, promoting sustainable intensification as the necessary path to feed the planet.

Looking ahead to 2024, Saik emphasizes the need for enhanced connectivity within the seed industry. He discusses his platform, AgvisorPro, which is designed to facilitate connections between farmers, experts, and companies in a way that transcends conventional social media platforms. Saik envisions a credible, connected agricultural network that goes beyond the noise of platforms like LinkedIn or Twitter.

In a passionate vision for the future, Saik imagines a tool for teachers that allows them to pose questions from students, answered by verified farmers and ranchers. This, he believes, would provide an authentic and valuable educational resource, connecting classrooms with individuals who truly understand the intricacies of agriculture.