Battered. That’s how Nebraska agricultural meteorologist Eric Hunt described Nebraska’s wheat crop this year. Hunt said a “series of catastrophes” including drought, late freezes, and temperature swings pummeled this year’s crop. The result — the lowest production in over 100 years. USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) projects this year’s crop will be 16.2 million bushels, down 57% compared to last year. And last year’s crop was no bin buster, off 21% compared to 2024. One must go back to 1917 to find fewer bushels of wheat produced in Nebraska.
Both harvested acres and average yield this year are projected to be significantly below average. Statewide average yield since 1990 is 43 bushels per acre. This year it is projected to be 28 bushels. Harvested acres this year are pegged at 580,000, the lowest going back to 1990. And the acres lost between planted and harvested acres, 320,000, falls just below a 30-year high of 330,000 acres in 2013, substantially higher than an average of 129,000 acres.
Winter wheat is Nebraska’s fourth-largest crop in terms of acres. Production is centered in the Panhandle and southwest Nebraska. Cheyenne, Box Butte, Perkins, Red Willow, Kimball, Furnas, and Chase were the largest wheat-producing counties in 2022, accounting for nearly 50 percent of production (Figure 2). These counties will feel the greatest effects of this year’s production shortfall.
U.S. winter wheat production is forecast to be down too. With reduced production, the USDA outlook forecasts smaller supplies and lower ending stocks. The potential for reduced supplies has provided a modest boost to price. The USDA projects the season-average farm price will be $6.00 per bushel compared to $5.05 last year. Cash bids for wheat in southwest Nebraska recently averaged $5.36 per bushel, almost $1.00 higher than last year. Production costs, though, remain high. Last fall, the University of Nebraska Center for Agriculture Profitability estimated the average per bushel economic cost of production for dryland wheat in Southwest Nebraska at $6.00-$8.00 per bushel. But the cost estimates were made before the recent rise in fuel and fertilizer costs and were based on larger projected yields. Lower actual yields will increase the per-bushel costs dramatically.
A Kansas State University agricultural economist estimated that wheat farmers in Kansas are receiving 55 cents for every dollar it cost them to grow this year’s crop. Wheat farmers in Nebraska are no doubt experiencing the same losses. This year will go down in history as a rough one for wheat growers. One might say they’ve been battered.
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