Beef Prices to Keep Rising as Brazil Supply Shrinks

Dec 31, 2025

By Ryan Hanrahan

The University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture’s John Lovett reported that “beef prices are projected to continue increasing as U.S. beef production declines with no signs of a cattle herd rebuild. At the start of the year, U.S. cattle inventories were at their lowest since the 1950s, and the U.S. cattle industry has been in liquidation mode since inventories peaked at 94.7 million head in 2019. The nation’s beef herd has decreased by 8 million head of cattle since that time.”

“‘Liquidating inventories is one phase of the cattle cycle, a 10- to 12-year pattern of expanding and contracting cattle numbers driven by changes in producer profitability and worsened by drought,’ said James Mitchell, an extension agricultural economist who focuses on livestock for the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture and the Dale Bumpers College of Agricultural, Food and Life Sciences,” according to Lovett’s reporting. ‘The impacts of historically tight cattle numbers are being felt at every stage of the beef supply chain.'”

“Using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Fryar Center notes that retail beef prices averaged $8.56 per pound through August 2025 up 60 cents per pound from the same period last year,” Lovett reported. “Beef has been running about four times more expensive per pound than chicken over the past two years, and as domestic protein demand remains relatively strong, poultry stands to gain more ground against beef and pork, the report stated.”

“‘Understandably, these higher prices have renewed concerns about consumer demand,’ Mitchell said,” according to Lovett’s reporting. “‘There is some evidence that beef has lost price competitiveness in 2025.'”

Source : illinois.edu

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