Canada-China Trade Agreement Boosts Outlook for Canola and Prairie Seed Sheds

Renewed exports may narrow the basis and reduce surplus stocks, but rebuilding grower confidence will take time.

Tariffs and economic trends are often discussed in the abstract, but their consequences couldn’t be more concrete for Prairie seed sheds.

In recent months, real-world examples have already reared their heads — such as canola multiplications in California facing counter-tariffs — forcing Canada’s seed sector to adapt to a trade environment that can change quickly, even when agreements are reached.

The recent trade deal between Canada and China has brought some much-needed relief to the sector, particularly around market access and export movement. But for many farmers and seed companies, the agreement also underscores a hard truth: the impacts of trade disruptions don’t disappear overnight.

It is little surprise that global trade ripples affect local decisions: fewer seed options, changing input costs, and constrained access to genetics.

“Tariffs create uncertainty in an environment where predictability is key for grain farmers making multi-year investments,” says Kyle Larkin, executive director at the Grain Growers of Canada.

“When market access is disrupted, it affects farmgate prices, input costs, and long-term planning.”