This report provides an update to Agriculture and Agri‑Food Canada’s (AAFC) December outlook report for the 2025‑2026 crop year and provides AAFC’s preliminary look at the upcoming 2026‑2027 crop year. For most crops in Canada, the crop year starts on August 1 and ends on July 31, although for corn and soybeans, the crop year starts on September 1 and ends on August 31. Market uncertainty in both Canadian and global grain markets remains elevated, primarily due to persistent geopolitical factors that continue to disrupt trade flows and market stability. The report is based on information and trade policies in effect as of January 16, 2026.
For 2025-2026, the outlook incorporates the results of Statistics Canada’s (STC) November Farm Survey of crop production, which was released on December 4, 2025. Production of all principal field crops is estimated to have increased 10% year-over-year (y/y), 16% above the previous five-year average. Carry-out stocks (ending-year inventories) for all principal field crops are projected to increase significantly by 67%, due largely to the increase in production and a projected 3% decline in exports. Prices for most principal field crops are forecast to be lower year-over-year, with the exception of soybeans and mustard seed.
For 2026‑2027, rotation considerations, moisture conditions, expected prices, and input costs/availability are the main factors determining farmers’ seeding decisions in the spring. Additionally, heightened uncertainty surrounding international trade is expected to play a role in shaping planting strategies this year. Based on current market conditions and historical trends, total seeded area for field crops in Canada is expected to remain largely stable year-over-year. Wheat area is projected to decrease slightly by 0.3%. Coarse grains are forecast to increase by 2%, primarily due to higher barley acreage, while corn and oats remain steady and rye declines sharply. Oilseed area is anticipated to grow by 2%, supported by increases in canola, soybeans, and flax. Conversely, pulses and special crops are expected to fall significantly by 12%, with notable reductions in dry peas, lentils, chickpeas, dry beans, and canary seed. Assuming normal growing conditions and trend yields, overall production of principal field crops is projected to decline year-over-year, while exports are expected to decline slightly and carry-out stocks to fall sharply. Price prospects are more positive, with most field crops expected to have stable to higher prices, except for canola, soybeans, and sunflower seed, where modest price declines are anticipated.
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