Crop Report for The Period August 9 to August 15, 2022

Aug 19, 2022

Producers made the most of the hot dry weather by harvesting as much as possible before thunder and rainstorms rolled through the province on the weekend, and harvest progress is now sitting at five per cent, just behind the five-year average (2017-2021) of eight per cent.

The southwest is leading harvest with 17 per cent of their crop now in the bin, followed by the west-central with eight per cent. Some producers in the southeast have begun harvesting earlier seeded crops that matured and they now have two percent of their crop in the bin. The East central region has one per cent of their crop harvested and the northern regions have not yet started harvest operations on a large scale. Producers in the southwest and west-central are reporting that they are seeing yields well below average.

Thirty-six per cent of the winter wheat, 22 per cent of the fall rye, 16 per cent of the field peas, 24 per cent of the lentils and two per cent of canola has been combined. Many fields have been swathed and are close to being ready to be combined.

There was precipitation in every region this past week with multiple storms bringing rain, hail and wind. The most rain received this week was in the Humboldt area where one crop reporter recorded 83 mm. The Broadview area received 65 mm, the Vanguard area 30 mm, the Saltcoats area 49 mm and the Conquest and Dinsmore areas received between 1 mm to 6 mm. Many producers in Crop District 6B (the Saskatoon-Outlook region) have received less than 150 mm (six inches) of rain this growing season and their crops, pastures and hay land have been impacted similarly to last year. There are water shortages across the southwest and west-central, resulting in many producers hauling water and continually testing the water quality of dugouts used for livestock.

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Video: Spring 2026 weather outlook for Wisconsin; What an early-arriving El Niño could mean

Northeast Wisconsin is a small corner of the world, but our weather is still affected by what happens across the globe.

That includes in the equatorial Pacific, where changes between El Niño and La Niña play a role in the weather here -- and boy, have there been some abrupt changes as of late.

El Niño and La Niña are the two phases of what is collectively known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO for short. These are the swings back and forth from unusually warm to unusually cold sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean along the equator.

Since this past September, we have been in a weak La Niña, which means water temperatures near the Eastern Pacific equator have been cooler than usual. That's where we're at right now.

Even last fall, the long-term outlook suggested a return to neutral conditions by spring and potentially El Niño conditions by summer.

But there are some signs this may be happening faster than usual, which could accelerate the onset of El Niño.

Over the last few weeks, unusually strong bursts of westerly winds farther west in the Pacific -- where sea surface temperatures are warmer than average -- have been observed. There is a chance that this could accelerate the warming of those eastern Pacific waters and potentially push us into El Niño sooner than usual.

If we do enter El Nino by spring -- which we'll define as the period of March, April and May -- there are some long-term correlations with our weather here in Northeast Wisconsin.

Looking at a map of anomalously warm weather, most of the upper Great Lakes doesn't show a strong correlation, but in general, the northern tiers of the United States do tend to lean to that direction.

The stronger correlation is with precipitation. El Niño conditions in spring have historically come with a higher risk of very dry weather over that time frame, so this will definitely be a transition we'll have to watch closely as we move out of winter.