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Dairy Market Drivers: Weather Impacts on Milk and Fat Production; Declining SNAP Participation; and the American Consumer in a Minute!

Jul 23, 2026

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Declining participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) creates another headwind for food demand.
USDA reported 20.3 million households enrolled in March, down 10% from a year earlier. That was the lowest enrollment level since March 2020 as new eligibility stipulations, work requirements, and state administrative cost-share provisions contributed to reduced enrollments.
Total benefits are shrinking alongside enrollment. Average monthly SNAP benefits held relatively steady at $347 per household, down just 1% from last year. But with 2.3 million fewer households participating, total benefits paid were roughly $880 million lower than a year earlier.
Fewer SNAP dollars in wallets cuts into grocery spending. SNAP benefits accounted for 8.3% of grocery store revenue in March, down from 9.4% a year ago and the smallest share since March 2020. That’s a meaningful shift for retailers, especially those serving value-conscious consumers.
Milk and other dairy products are some of the important staples purchased with SNAP dollars. But if fewer households are participating in food assistance programs, cash-strapped consumers may have tough choices to make. For dairy, this is a trend worth watching.

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