Pork demand, both export and domestic, has far underperformed expectations and is well below year ago. Slaughter in the last four weeks is down 2.5% vs year ago and the the pork cutout last week was down 14% vs year ago.
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Will the Pork Market Slump Continue in the Fall?
The rally in the pork cutout proved to be short lived. While all major primal values are down vs. last year, by far the biggest (negative) impact recently has come from the decline in ham values. Last week the average ham primal value was $82/cwt, down 30% from a year ago. That decline accounted for over half of the overall y/y drop in the value of the cutout. Other primals have underperformed as well relative to a year ago, despite the decline in supply. Loins were down 7%, bellies down 14% and picnics down 26%.
Little has changed in terms of pork supply compared to a year ago. Hog slaughter in the last four weeks has averaged 2.28 million head/week, 2.5% lower than a year ago and 5.4% lower than in 2024. Some of the reduction in slaughter has been offset by the increase in the weight of hogs coming to market. During these four weeks, the average dressed weight has been about 3 pounds (+1.3%) higher than a year ago and 2 pounds (+0.9%) higher than in 2024. And yet, the pork cutout last week averaged around $101/cwt, down around $3/cwt from a couple of weeks ago and $16/cwt (-14%) lower than last year.
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