By William E. Maples
Throughout this growing season, much of the conversation has centered around expectations for a historically large U.S. corn crop. In its September report, USDA projected production at 16.8 billion bushels, nearly 1.5 billion more than the previous record set in 2023. As noted in last week’s Southern Ag Today article, Potential Market Impacts of Missing a WASDE Report During Government Shutdowns, the October WASDE was canceled due to the government shutdown, leaving producers without updated yield or demand estimates.
Now that harvest is well underway and yields are coming in, USDA may trim its yield estimate slightly, but even with a small adjustment, we are still looking at a massive crop. The key question moving forward is simple: what are we going to do with all of it?
Most U.S. corn is used for three primary purposes: livestock feed, ethanol production, and exports, which together account for roughly 97 percent of total use. The remaining share goes toward food and seed. Figure 1 shows annual corn consumption since 2010. Corn used for feed is currently projected at 6.1 billion bushels, the highest level since at least 2000.
The projected grain-consuming animal units (GCAUs), a USDA measure of animals on feed, are estimated at 100.8 for 2025. Even with a smaller cattle supply, this is higher than the 2024 measure of 99.9, driven by increases in hogs, layers, and broilers. Lower corn prices make it a more competitive feed ingredient that will continue to support feed demand in the year ahead.
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