Durum ending stocks for the 2019-20 marketing year are even lower than expected, helping to tighten all wheat supplies as well.
A Statistics Canada grain stocks report released Friday pegged Canadian durum stocks as of July 31 – ending stocks for the now concluded 2019-20 marketing year – at just 659,800 tonnes, a 63.2% drop from a year earlier and the lowest since at least July, 2000. The StatsCan durum ending stocks estimate comes even below Agriculture Canada’s latest forecast of 800,000 tonnes in August.
With durum down so sharply, StatsCan estimated July 31 stocks of all wheat at just over 5 million tonnes, a 14.6% drop from the previous year, and also below last month’s Ag Canada forecast of 5.3 million tonnes.
On the other hand, all wheat (excl durum) stocks as of July 31 were actually up from the year ago level, rising to 4.36 million tonnes from 4.09 million.
Nationwide all wheat on-farm stocks as of July 31 were estimated at 1.7 million tonnes, a drop of 35% from a year earlier. Commercial stocks were little changed compared to the previous year, rising 2.1% to 3.3 million tonnes.
Farmer deliveries of all wheat in 2019-20 rose 3.9% year over year to a record-high 29.7 million tonnes, contributing to the decrease in on-farm stocks, StatsCan said. Exports increased 1.3% to 24.6 million tonnes, driven by strong global demand.
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