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DOJ, USDA to Examine Rising Farm Input Costs

By Ryan Hanrahan

Reuters’ Leah Douglas reported late last week that “the U.S. Department of Justice antitrust division will work with the Department of Agriculture to look closely at the rising cost of agricultural inputs like fertilizer and seeds under a memorandum of understanding signed on Thursday, said Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins.”

“The goal of the joint effort is to ‘protect American farmers and ranchers from the burdens imposed by high and volatile input costs, such as feed, fertilizer, fuel, seed, equipment and other essential goods,’ Rollins said at the Ag Outlook Forum in Kansas City, Missouri,” according to Douglas’s reporting. “The DOJ will scrutinize competitive conditions in the agricultural marketplace, including antitrust enforcement that promotes free market competition, Rollins said.”

“Rollins previously said the USDA is examining high fertilizer costs and exploring options for farmer relief,” Douglas reported.

Bloomberg’s Erin Ailworth reported that “the cost of key inputs such as fertilizers and tractors have been on the rise this year, partly because of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. That has squeezed farmers at a time when they are also dealing with low crop prices and China’s shift away from American soybeans.”

Source : illinois.edu

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Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

Video: Wheat Yields in USA and China Threatened by Heat Waves Breaking Enzymes

A new peer reviewed study looks at the generally unrecognized risk of heat waves surpassing the threshold for enzyme damage in wheat.

Most studies that look at crop failure in the main food growing regions (breadbaskets of the planet) look at temperatures and droughts in the historical records to assess present day risk. Since the climate system has changed, these historical based risk analysis studies underestimate the present-day risks.

What this new research study does is generate an ensemble of plausible scenarios for the present climate in terms of temperatures and precipitation, and looks at how many of these plausible scenarios exceed the enzyme-breaking temperature of 32.8 C for wheat, and exceed the high stress yield reducing temperature of 27.8 C for wheat. Also, the study considers the possibility of a compounded failure with heat waves in both regions simultaneously, this greatly reducing global wheat supply and causing severe shortages.

Results show that the likelihood (risk) of wheat crop failure with a one-in-hundred likelihood in 1981 has in today’s climate become increased by 16x in the USA winter wheat crop (to one-in-six) and by 6x in northeast China (to one-in-sixteen).

The risks determined in this new paper are much greater than that obtained in previous work that determines risk by analyzing historical climate patterns.

Clearly, since the climate system is rapidly changing, we cannot assume stationarity and calculate risk probabilities like we did traditionally before.

We are essentially on a new planet, with a new climate regime, and have to understand that everything is different now.