Early supply-demand projections from the USDA suggest supplies of all three primary crops – corn, wheat, and soybeans – will remain heavy, with little in the way of price improvement in 2026-27.
Released Thursday morning as part of the USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, the projections assume normal weather conditions for spring planting and summer crop development and will be further updated in the government’s first official new-crop supply-demand estimates released in May.
Combined acreage for the three crops is projected at 224 million acres — a decline of less than 1% from last year’s final plantings. With acreage only modestly lower and trend-line yields assumed, the outlook from USDA points to another year in which large supplies continue to cap price potential across the major U.S. row crops.
Corn
U.S. corn production for 2026-27 is projected at 15.755 billion bu, down about 7% from the previous year as planted area declines. Corn acreage is forecast at 94 million acres, down 4.8 million acres from 2025, reflecting weaker relative returns compared to soybeans. The average yield is pegged at 183 bu/acre, down from last year’s record high 186.5 bu.
Despite the smaller crop, total corn supplies remain ample at 17.9 billion bu, down from the record 18.6 billion in 2025-26 but still historically large due to higher beginning stocks. Total corn use is forecast to fall about 2% year over year, led by lower exports and reduced feed and residual use. Exports are projected at 3.1 billion bu, down 200 million from 2025-26, as South American competition expands and global demand growth remains modest.
Ending stocks are forecast at 1.837 billion bu, down 290 million from the current estimate for 2025/26, with the stocks-to-use ratio falling to 11.4%. While tighter than a year earlier, stocks remain above the five-year average. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.20/bu, up a dime from the prior year.
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