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General market observations

Jun 26, 2023

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U.S. Pork in cold storage at the end of May was 525,000 lbs. down 4% from a year ago. The first time we have had lower pork storage year over year for several months. U.S. weekly pork production is around 500,000. Storage 1 week’s production.
Sow slaughter for the latest week was 66,861 head. We believe a clear sign of ongoing liquidation. We estimate anything over 60,000 a week, clear sign of liquidation.
Last June 1 the U.S. breeding inventory was 6.168 million. We expect this June 1 to be about 100,000 head lower.
Iowa – S. Minnesota hog weights continue to slide. A week ago, 278.5 lbs., week before 279.9 lbs. (-1.4 lbs.). A year ago, 283.6 lbs. (-5.1 lbs. year over year). Lower weights indicate producers willing to sell. Packers ready to buy. On April 24th Iowa – S. Minnesota price was 67.44¢ lb. June 21st it was 96.97¢ lb. A gain of almost $60 per head. We expect the lower weights we are seeing are a positive sign that the hog price can continue higher as packers chase hogs.
The corn price has had its gyrations recently. Weather is the big factor. Looks dry and corn goes up. Rains it goes down, a real rollercoaster. Two realities U.S. corn exports -33% from a year ago. There are places in Brazil as low as $4.32 bushel, it is also a limiting factor on U.S. corn price increases.

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